Picks of the Day for September 13th

Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, September 13, 2017 12:40 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 13, 2017 12:40 PM UTC

With plenty of pitchers to fade on Wednesday's MLB betting card, Mark Lathrop picks combinations which should result in a pair of Overs for his Picks of the Day. 

[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/Z3DPGc6qRfU", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]L.A. Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants

Lost in the swill which is the Dodgers last month of MLB play is a totals trend that should be taken advantage of. A fade-worthy pitcher takes the mound for the Giants as we take advantage of a great spot for the Over.

The Dodgers have lost a lot of games lately, which is one of the top stories in the MLB right now, but what is lost in that is a 14-3 O-U trend favoring the Over coming into Tuesday night. Tonight, they will go up against Matt Moore of the Giants, who cannot get left-handers out to save his life. On the season, Moore has given up a .367 BAA and .614 SLG against southpaws over 33.2 innings pitched. He has struggled heavily against teams that can stack that side of the box this year and should struggle again in this game.

Taking the mound for the Dodgers is Yu Darvish, who is coming off of two 5-run losses in a row. He’s had a disappointing second half of the season, giving up a .286 BAA, 1.50 WHIP, and .545 SLG over that time frame. He also carries a 4.75 FIP in the second half of the season, where his HR/FB rate has skyrocketed to 24.5%. With Moore on the mound and Darvish struggling I will take the value presented with the Total in this game and take Over 7.5 as one of my Wednesday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Over 7.5 RunsBest Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Our MLB handicapper spots a pitcher now reaching the highest innings he’s pitched in a season of his career. The danger signs have started to show with statistical trends to back with wagers.

German Marquez of the Rockies has seen his HR/FB rate skyrocket in the 2nd half of the season, with a 22.8% HR/FB rate to show for it. He’s given up multiple home runs in 3 of his last 5 games and hasn’t won in 4 starts. One thing I notice when looking deep within the results is that the vertical break of Marquez’s pitches has lessened over the last few games. He’s throwing a straight ball that is getting hit hard at a 42.4% rate in September.

Taking the pill for the Diamondbacks is Patrick Corbin, who is coming off of a 8 earned run performance against the San Diego Padres. For his sake, the good news is that the blow-up starts have been few and far between. It just turns out that he more vulnerable to put one of those up against the Rockies this year. Corbin gives up a .296 BAA against right-handers, so he will always be vulnerable against teams that can stack that side of the box. With these two pitchers seeming weak and Colorado hot on offense, I will take the Over of 9 as one of my Wednesday MLB selections.

Free MLB Pick: Over 9 RunsBest Line Offered: at Heritage

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