Picks of the Day for September 10th

MLB Picks of the Day thumbnail

Mark Lathrop

Sunday, September 10, 2017 1:57 PM GMT

Sunday, Sep. 10, 2017 1:57 PM GMT

Coming off of yet another sweep our Mark Lathrop takes his 11-5-1 ATS September record to new heights as he makes his Sunday MLB Picks of the Day. 

2017 MLB Record, 194-170-10, +11.23 units

San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Our MLB handicapper loves the starting pitching in Arizona this afternoon but also suggests using a first 5 innings line to avoid the “Fernando Rodney Experience” like what happened last night.

Robbie Ray for the Diamondbacks is coming off of a fine stretch of wins in which he is carrying a 33/4 K/9 rate. In his last start, Ray struck out 14 Dodger batters while walking none. He’s been better in the second half overall versus the first this season and carries a 3.21 2nd half FIP into this matchup. Ray does have a negative home/away split in this case, but given that his worse split is a home .228 BAA I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt here.

Ray will face Luis Perdomo of the Padres, who’s season is fading to a close. Perdomo’s K/9 rate has faltered over the 2nd half of the season and has dropped from 7.45 to 5.53. He has also allowed a .294 BAA and 1.61 WHIP over that same time frame. Perdomo is approaching the highest innings pitched in any season of his professional career, and for that reason I don’t feel good backing the 24-year old. I’ll avoid the Diamondbacks bullpen shenanigans and take Arizona +.5 runs on the first 5 inning line at 5Dimes as one of my Sunday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks +.5 1hBest Line Offered: at 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3139846, "sportsbooksIds":[19,1096,93,1275,123], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

 

L.A. Angels vs Seattle Mariners

It’s sweep or be swept in Seattle lately, and in this case our MLB handicapper likes the trend to continue and for the M’s to win at home today against the Angels.

The Mariners have been streaky all year long, and this weekend should be no exception. They’ll have Erasmo Ramirez on the mound, who has used the trade to Seattle to give his season a boost and carries a 3.12 ERA over the second half of the season. That success is largely driven by a below average .202 BABIP, a number that is clearly unsustainable. However, the success coming after being traded can’t be denied, and I suspect a member of the Seattle training staff got to Ramirez and made a tweak. His line drive rate has plummeted to a below average 15.7%, so he is inducing a lot of weak contact – which will lower a BABIP number.

Ramirez will face Parker Bridwell of the Angels, who somehow has a 7-2 record on the season. He struggles mightily against left handers and allows a .288 BAA and .503 SLG to them on the year, a fact that makes his matchup against the Mariners very unfavorable to him. Yonder Alonso, Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, and Ben Gamel will certainly be in the lineup today licking their chops. With Erasmo Ramirez carrying a career ERA of 2.32 against the Angels over his career, I will back him and the Mariners on the moneyline as one of my Sunday MLB selections.

Free MLB Pick: Seattle Mariners MLBest Line Offered: at Pinnacle

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3140208, "sportsbooksIds":[238,1096,93,19,1275], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

comment here