Picks of the Day for Saturday, June 24th

Mark Lathrop

Saturday, June 24, 2017 12:03 PM UTC

Saturday, Jun. 24, 2017 12:03 PM UTC

The weekend is here and we hope to take advantage of some choice matchups. As long as Tropical Storm Cindy stays away from the ballparks all should be good.  2017 MLB Record, 119-100-7, +8.92 Units, 3.61% ROI

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Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals 

This game features the return of Homer Bailey, who has missed almost two years of significant playing time due to Tommy John and bone spur surgeries. He matches up with Joe Ross and the Nationals on Saturday afternoon.

Homer Bailey comes into this game with 3 sharp rehab starts under his belt, and velocity reports of a fastball touching 94 at times. The last time that Bailey was able to pitch at that velocity was before he went down with his injury. That lines up with a 3.31 FIP and 3.93 FIP in 2013 and 2014, respectively. What I’ve liked about Bailey is his consistent K-BB% in the mid-teens, which will keep him in games. He also has a career WHIP of 1.32. If he can repeat that Bailey will immediately become one of the Reds best starters.

Joe Ross takes the bump for the Nationals in this game and is coming off of a loss to the Mets. Ross has gotten hit around a lot this year and carries a .313 batting average against and 1.55 WHIP. He’s also double his HR/FB% from 2015 and 2016 to 18.3%. Looking on the game by game velocity charts I see that his fastball velocity is dropping as the year goes on, and averages 2 mph less than in 2015 and 2016- those years where his HR/FB% was under 10%. He has also increased his slider velocity to about 85 mph, leaving just 4-5mph between these two pitches. That takes timing out of the equation for the hitter, leaving just spin to identify pitches and make contact. In plate discipline numbers batters are swinging at fewer pitches outside the zone and making contact with more pitches in the zone. A deadly combination. I’ll fade Ross and take Bailey in his return at plus money, where the Reds can be found on the MLB odds boards at +127 at Heritage for one of my Saturday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick Cincinnati (+147)Best Lines Available: Bet Online


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Texas Rangers vs New York Yankees

The BMOC (@JeffNadu) and Donnie Rightside (@RightsideVP) look for career minor leaguers to fade as they get their final shot at the big leagues. I think I’ve found one in this matchup between the Rangers and Yankees on Saturday.

Austin Bibens-Dirkx got his first AAA action in 2006 with the Tacoma Rainiers. Fast forward 12 seasons and he is finally getting his 4th MLB start in his career on Saturday at Yankee Stadium. He broke spring training with Rangers AAA club and didn’t get his first MLB call up until about a month ago. Bibens-Dirkx was eventually used as middle relief until getting his first start on May 31st. I don’t know if I need to break down his stuff in too much detail, but rest assured that you don’t take 12 years to advance through the minors with above average talent.

Luis Cessa starts for the Yankees in place of CC Sabathia in this game. He has a career 5.58 FIP over 77.2 MLB innings, and a career 20.2% HR/FB rate over the same time in 2016 and 2017. His offerings show promise in regards to velocity and velocity differences, but have been graded as average because of the lack of movement overall. He’s a 7th starter, and since we have two average starters and some decent offenses – not to mention high winds that should be blowing out due to the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy – the Over looks like a good wager as another Saturday MLB Picks of the Day. Hopefully, the rain stays away to cash this ticket.

Free MLB Pick OVER 11 RunsBest Lines Available: 5dimes

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