Picks of the Day for Saturday, April 29th

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Mark Lathrop

Saturday, April 29, 2017 12:55 PM GMT

With almost a month of baseball in the books our handicapper, Mark Lathrop, is starting to find value easier on the betting board. Read on as he gives the two picks that stand out to him the most on the Saturday MLB card.

   Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Indians

 

The Mariners won the opening game of this series as heavy road underdogs. Now they get a repeat of that situation with righty Danny Salazar on the mound for the Cleveland Indians.

With Danny Salazar on the mound for the Indians on Saturday night, the Indians find themselves as very heavy favorites over the Seattle Mariners. Salazar has been a bit snake bit over the season, combining a 4.37 ERA with a stellar 2.09 FIP. He is 1-2 on the season over 4 starts and has a BABIP of .431 over 22.2 innings pitched.

Even though their roster says that Cleveland is one of the top teams in the American League, they have lost 5 straight games on the run line as moneyline favorites. Not exactly dominating the competition. On Saturday, they’ll face a Seattle team that has won 3 games straight, including Friday night’s 3-1 win with Ariel Miranda starting. They’ll get Yovani Gallardo here, who has only walked 1 batter over his last 12.1 innings pitched. He is also 1-2 on the season with a 3.64 FIP. It doesn’t look like a matchup that should be as lopsided as the odds suggest, so I’m going to take the insurance run and grab Seattle at +1.5.

 

Free MLB Pick: Seattle +1.5Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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  Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

 

With both of these teams taking early surprising leads in the NL West, this series has important division implications that will become apparent later in the season. Arizona needs to win this game with their ace on the mound.

Zack Greinke has pitched great for the Diamondbacks so far this season, which is why it is a little surprising that he has only put up a 2-2 record. He has an ERA of 2.93 but FIP of 2.38, indicating a bit of bad luck with his defense behind him. Greinke has also put up a slightly higher BABIP than normal, which should regress as balls start finding defenders in the field. Over last year, he is striking out more batters, walking less, and allowing fewer home runs per nine innings. What’s not to like?

Tyler Anderson starts for the Rockies in this game, and he has been susceptible to the long ball so far over his first 5 starts. He only gave up 12 home runs all of the last year over 114.1 innings pitched; however, Anderson has already given up 6 home runs this year over 25.1 innings. His 20.9% HR/FB rate is indicative of the sharp drop in his ground ball rate this year, from 50.9% to 39.2% through the first month of the season. Pitching in Chase Field likely won’t help with this phenomenon. I’m backing the clear pitching advantage that Arizona has and taking the Diamondbacks on the moneyline at -136 as a Saturday MLB Pick.

 

 Free MLB Picks: Arizona -136Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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