Picks of the Day for June 8th

Mark Lathrop

Thursday, June 8, 2017 12:29 PM UTC

Thursday, Jun. 8, 2017 12:29 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper has spotted two games with extreme value on the Thursday betting card. Let's follow him as he breaks down the logic as he makes his Picks of the Day.

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2017 MLB Record, 97-81-6, +7.73 Units, 3.66% ROI


Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves

An impressive first start by the Phillies prospect, Ben Lively, has given us an opportunity to fade him on his second trip around the block. Here our MLB handicapper believes the Over is the play.

It takes some skill to put up a 1.29 ERA and 4.77 FIP after your first start in the major leagues. In this case, Blake Lively… err Ben Lively has done it by pitching 7 innings of one run ball while not striking out a single batter. That is very hard to do, but his low-90’s fastball does set up well with a mid-70’s curveball he throws in a 64%/30% ratio. He didn’t miss many bats though, and his 5.1% swinging strike rate tells me that Lively is due for some steep regression on Thursday evening.

Lively goes up against the king of randomness in Atlanta knuckleballer, R.A. Dickey. Dickey has put up a 6.26 FIP and 17.9% HR/FB rate this year in route to cashing Overs at a 7-3 clip. Dickey has given up at least three runs in each of his last seven starts and four or more in three of his last four. Dickey is especially bad at home. So much so that I would be taking the Over here no matter the opposing pitcher. Dickey is posting a 24.3% HR/FB rate in Atlanta this season and giving up a .290 batting average allowed. This Over may come down to the bullpens with the prospect of these pitchers leaving early, but I am taking Over 9 -117 (buying half run) at 5Dimes as one of my Thursday MLB Picks.

Free MLB Pick: Over 9 Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals

Lance McCullers has been good for three years now. Our MLB handicapper thinks it is time to start riding him like the ace he is. Here he breaks down his latest start against the Kansas City Royals.

The Royals may have gotten all of their upset minded offense out of the way on Wednesday night after Dallas Keuchel was a late scratch. That leaves Lance McCullers to win the series for Houston, which he is more than capable of doing. McCullers is 6-1 on the season and running a 2.97 FIP, .215 BAA, and 1.11 WHIP. His only real issue is with left-handers, who hit .240 off of him this season. Not much of an issue when you consider that McCullers has improved as the year has gone on and put up a 0.99 ERA and .164 BAA in May.

Starting for the Royals is Jason Hammel who is 2-6 on the season and has accrued a 4.81 FIP over 57.2 innings pitched. He’s had it rough of late, and has given up a .343 batting average against right handers on the season. His 2017 WHIP of 1.60 is also the worst in his career. Hammel will be frankly outmatched on Thursday, which is why I am fine laying the -1.5 runs on Houston at -110 at Heritage as one of my Thursday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Houston -1.5Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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