Picks of the Day for June 5th

Mark Lathrop

Monday, June 5, 2017 2:09 PM UTC

Monday, Jun. 5, 2017 2:09 PM UTC

A short card in Monday's action still presents two games with excellent betting value. Read on as our handicapper, Mark Lathrop, zeroes in on the wagers to make in his Monday MLB Picks of the Day.

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2017 MLB Record, 94-79-6, +6.83 Units, 3.34% ROI

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves

These two National League teams have almost reached system bet status in regards to their hitting of Overs. This day is no different, as they have the biggest total listed on the board.

The Phillies are cashing Overs on the road at a 17-9 clip this year, but the reason isn’t their offense, which only scores 3.6 runs per game in that situation. No, their reason is the pitching, which is allowing 4.9 runs per game on a .271 batting average allowed. Phillies prospect, Nick Pivetta, gets called up from AAA to make this start and although he has some excellent potential also has control issues. In his first 4 starts at the major league level this year he ran a 4.19 BB/9 rate and a 1.81 WHIP.

Bartolo Colon starts for Atlanta and his change in scenery from the Mets has not done him well. On closer look, you’d think it was the new ballpark that was the difference, but he is carrying a 7.46 ERA on the road. It may just be the end of the road for the 44-year old pitcher, who is running a 4.96 FIP and allowing right handers to hit .355 off of him. Even the Phillies should be able to put together a lineup to take advantage of that split, so I will be following the Over trend for these two teams and taking Over 9.5 at 5Dimes (buying half run) as one of my Monday MLB Picks.

Free MLB Pick: Over 9.5Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals

An indicator that helped us fade Oakland’s Triggs earlier in the week comes back in this situation with the Royals, as they start a pitcher struggling through some type of injury.

Ian Kennedy came back from a DL stint a few weeks ago and still has not found anything good. He lost two ticks on his velocity in a string of three starts in late April and early May, which led to the DL. He hasn’t gotten his velocity back in his return and has gotten absolutely hammered – giving up 14 runs in 10 innings pitched through 3 abbreviated starts. Whatever is wrong with Kennedy starts when he pitches out of the stretch, as his BAA balloons to .259 and he runs a 13/10 K/BB rate.

Mike Fiers starts for Houston, and he will be looking forward to facing the terrible Royals offense. He started the year rough in putting up a 5.12 April ERA, but has improved in all metrics in May and is coming off of his best start of the year at Minnesota. Fiers won’t have to be perfect here as his offense is averaging 5.5 runs off of right-handed starters and Kansas City only putting up 3.5 runs against righties. With Kennedy ailing I’m expecting Houston to get to him early and often, so I’m backing the Astros here at -125 on the moneyline at BetDSI as one of my Monday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Houston -125Best Line Offered: at BetDSI

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