Picks of the Day for June 4th

MLB Picks of the Day thumbnail

Saturday, June 3, 2017 9:32 PM GMT

Superior road starters have been a theme lately on our MLB Picks of the Day. That doesn't change here as the road situations lead to moneyline value as Mark Lathrop makes his Sunday selections.

 

2017 MLB Record, 91-76-6, +6.85 Units, 3.41% ROI

Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels

Our MLB handicapper finds yet another reason to fade the Trout-less Anaheim Angels. This time it is the presence of one of the better pitching prospects in the MLB on the mound for the Twins.

First round pick, Jose Berrios, starts this game for the Twins and all indications are that he has made the final jump to the major-league level. After failing to launch in his cup of coffee last year, Berrios is back this year and has been solid. His walk rate is down to 2.70 BB/9, similar to his 2016 AAA season where he put up a 2.91 FIP. A subterranean .167 BABIP on the year has his FIP at 3.83 versus a 2.70 ERA. This suggests some regression is due, but a 3.83 FIP is nothing to sneeze at, and .125 batting average allowed on the road could get a lot worse and Minnesota still win this game.

Berrios goes up against Ricky Nolasco of the Angels who is 2-5 over 11 starts and carries a 5.63 FIP into this game. Nolasco has hit a rough patch and has given up 11 runs over his last 8.2 innings pitched and two starts. He’s struggling against batters from both sides of the plate – allowing a .268 BAA against lefties and a .277 BAA against righties. With the line showing value in backing Minnesota here, I’ll take the hot Twins prospect on the road at -103 on the moneyline at BetOnline as one of my Sunday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Minnesota -103Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3141222, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,93,1275,19,238], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

 

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles

Rarely does our MLB handicapper take chalk over -135, but in this game there are many red flags in backing the home team starter against Boston’s Chris Sale.

This reeks of the situation like backing the Cleveland Indians yesterday, where the pitching matchup was so egregious you had to pick that side. Nothing is ever that easy in handicapping, but sometimes you have to go back to the well until you learn your lesson.

That is the case here as Chris Tillman goes for Baltimore against Sale, and Tillman has not recovered his form since coming off of the DL. His walk rate is up, strikeout rate is down, FIP sitting at 4.91, fastball velocity down 2mph, first strike rate down double digits, and whiff rate the worst it has been in seven years.

All this against Chris Sale no less, who is running a 1.92 FIP coming into this game and a 12.69 K/9 rate against a 1.85 BB/9 rate. I don’t usually like fading pitchers running a 110/16 K/BB rate and a 0.91 WHIP. I will lay the chalk with Sale here and hope that the Boston bullpen never sees the light of day, taking the Red Sox at -157 currently available at BetOnline.

Free MLB Pick: Boston -157Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3140222, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,93,1275,19,238], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]