Picks of the Day for June 30th

Mark Lathrop

Friday, June 30, 2017 1:08 PM UTC

Friday, Jun. 30, 2017 1:08 PM UTC

Nothing is that easy, so our MLB handicapper analyzes two huge home underdogs to see if there is any value in taking the ugly side. Read on as he finds that value using the run line to fade huge chalk.

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2017 MLB Record, 123-112-7, +1.08 Units, 0.46% ROI

L.A. Dodgers vs San Diego Padres

Our handicapper spots a line that is a little heavy handed for a road favorite, and also a red flag on one of the best pitchers of the 2017 season.

Alex Wood of the Dodgers has done some amazing things this season, and in only 67.2 innings pitches has matched his season WAR totals in both 2014 and 2015 of 2.6. If this continued, we’d be looking at a 7.5-WAR season from the left hander. That mark would exceed the MLB-best 6.5 WAR that Clayton Kershaw put up in 2016, and be the best mark since Kershaw’s 8.6 WAR season in 2015. So, needless to say I’m a little skeptical if he can keep up this pace. One interesting development with Wood is that the velocity on his fastball has steadily dropped over the season – down from his first start average of 94.3 mph to his last start at 92.4 mph. That in itself is fine, but his off-speed pitches have stayed the same velocity, which has created a smaller gap than he was pitching with before. Wood even hit the DL in late May due to shoulder inflammation and the velocity was still down when he came back. Who knows how long he will be able to keep up his amazing production of a 2.12 FIP with these variables in the mix.

Wood will go up against Clayton Richard of the Padres, who has put up a better than average 3.75 xFIP of his own on the year. Richard has pitched twice against the Dodgers this season, one game an 8-inning shutout gem in April and the other a 5-run dud in May. With the Padres getting a very steep home discount, I’ll take my chances with the run line should a pitcher’s duel break out and take San Diego +1.5 +110 at Heritage as one of my Friday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: San Diego Padres +1.5 Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles

These two divisional foes match up for the second series in a week on Friday night. Our MLB handicapper sees enough value on the home team to change his tune on a fade-worthy pitcher.

The betting public has caught up to the fact that Chris Tillman has struggled mightily over the last few months. Ok, maybe that is an understatement with his 11.14 ERA in June. He’ll match up against the Tampa Bay Rays for the second start in a row on Friday and there are some slight signs that I’ll latch onto here to say that Tillman is starting to improve as the season goes on. First his velocity seems to be coming back with a tick up on his fastball and almost 2 mph on his cutter from when he came off of the DL. He’s also throwing more strikes, up from 38.7% in his first start back to 53.3% in his latest start against the Rays. His .392 BABIP is also patently ridiculous and will start regressing towards his career average of .284 – even if just a bit.

Tillman will face Jacob Faria of the Rays, who is also coming off of a start against the Orioles. Turns out it was his worst start of the season, as he gave up 3 earned runs and 2 dingers over 6 IP. This will be the first time that Faria will face an MLB for the second time, and my hunch is that the Orioles will make adjustments faster than the rookie. With that in mind, and a valuable home run line underdog betting line, I will take the Orioles +1.5 -135 at Heritage as one of my Friday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Baltimore +1.5Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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