Picks of the Day for June 3rd

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Saturday, June 3, 2017 1:32 PM GMT

Our expert handicapper continues a strong June start with two picks in the midwest. One should feature a lot of offense and the other will feature a team getting shut down. Read on as he makes his Saturday MLB Picks of the Day.

2017 MLB Record, 90-75-6, +6.97 Units, 3.57% ROI

Cleveland Indians vs Kansas City Royals

The Cleveland Indians have the benefit of some steep chalk on Saturday morning, but our MLB handicapper thinks it is warranted. Read on as he breaks down this lopsided pitching matchup in Kansas City.

Jason Hammel has won one decision this year, and it was against these Cleveland Indians. That game has some fluky characteristics though, one being a .154 BABIP for Cleveland in the game which is well below his .341 season BABIP. Basically, it was the best Hammel could pitch combined with nothing put into play finding a hole. The culprit of Hammel’s woes this year has been his walk rate increasing to 4.06 BB/9 from 2.86 BB/9 in 2016. That has his WHIP all the way up to 1.71 on the year as well. That’s his worst WHIP since his rookie season in 2006 where he went 0-6 over 9 starts. On the year, he has allowed a .299 batting average allowed.

He opposes Carlos Carrasco who is allowing just a .199 batting average allowed on the season with a 0.92 WHIP. Digging deeper and I can’t find much to take advantage of in regards to splits, as right handers hit .172 off of him while lefties hi .218. Not much lineup magic will fix that. He also pitches well out of jams, with his BAA dropping to .158 with men on base. The Royals offense is ripe for the picking here, so I am backing the Indians on the run line -1.5 at -105 at Heritage as one of my Saturday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Cleveland -1.5 Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds

The Great American Ballpark is one of the best parks for offense, and in this matchup our knuckleballer friend, R.A. Dickey, takes a turn on the road. Our MLB handicapper doesn’t think the line for the Over is unreasonable for Saturday.

R.A. Dickey comes into this game with a 6-3 record favoring the Over. He’s taken a step back this season pitching for the Braves – their new ballpark is similar to Cincinnati’s in favoring offense. But also, Dickey has been walking a lot more batters this season and is carrying a 30/29 K/BB rate. That has led to a 6.07 FIP against a deceiving 4.95 ERA on the year. R.A. Dickey is also allowing a .283 batting average allowed, the worst mark he has carried since his 2009 stint with the Minnesota Twins.

Scott Feldman gets the start for the Reds and all we need to do is for him not to pitch a shutout for us to cash the Over here. He carries a 4.08 FIP on the year, so that should not be a problem. I’ll take the knuckleballer and the ballpark factors here and take the Over of 9.5 runs at Heritage as one of my Friday MLB Picks.

Free MLB Pick: Over 9.5Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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