Picks of the Day for June 29th

Mark Lathrop

Thursday, June 29, 2017 1:04 PM UTC

Thursday, Jun. 29, 2017 1:04 PM UTC

Our Handicapper looks to get back on track and finish June strong as he analyzes the Thursday betting card. Even with the short card Mark Lathrop has found value with his Thursday MLB Picks of the Day.

[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/99pC4TJJxYs", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds

Our MLB handicapper, with the help of the Night Shift SBR crew, has identified a starter that should be a heavy favorite at Cincinnati, yet is not.

Jimmy Nelson of the Brewers has turned a corner this season and is putting up career high strikeout and career low walk numbers. That has led to a drastic FIP improvement over his 5.12 2016 mark, to 3.19 in 2017. Most pitchers don’t have an increase in velocity with an increase in control either, but that is exactly what Nelson has done in 2017. His first strike rate is at his highest in his career and he is throwing more strikes, period. One reason why Nelson may not be favored more heavily in this game is his road ERA, which sits at 5.06. He has a 1.34 WHIP on the road against a 1.28 at home though, so I’m considering it noise at this point.

Nelson will face Homer Bailey, who makes his second start of the season after returning from injury. I was backing him on his first start based on his velocity and control numbers in his rehab starts. Turns out the adrenaline of MLB action got to Bailey, as the velocity was there but he was wild and got knocked around. There is only one trustworthy pitcher in this matchup, so I will back Nelson and the Brewers on the first 5 inning moneyline at 5Dimes' MLB betting lines as one of my Thursday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -107Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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N.Y. Yankees vs CH White Sox

Our MLB handicapper looks at two very average pitchers in this game, a few beat up bullpens, and the forecast for runs. Here he breaks down the case for taking the Over in Chicago.

The Yankees have been in quite a tailspin of late, even after they crushed the White Sox on Wednesday night. As I write this up I see that the Yankees bullpen is ranked 28th overall in the MLB in the last 2 weeks. That is a symptom of overuse and poor pitching from start to finish.

The Yankees will start Luis Cessa in this game, a fill-in starter for injured CC Sabathia. This will be the 3rd start for the 25-year old, and he’s given up a home run in each of the other two. With only 12.1 innings pitched over 3 appearances in 2017 with the big-league club, there really isn’t enough statistical data to pick up on trends. Instead we will have to fall back on the fact that Cessa has been decidedly average or worse in his last 140 innings pitched.

Cessa will face James Shields of the Chicago White Sox who has put up a 6.73 FIP… and we are taking the Over of 10.5 runs at Pinnacle as one of our Thursday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Over 10.5Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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