Picks of the Day for June 23rd

MLB Picks of the Day thumbnail

Mark Lathrop

Friday, June 23, 2017 12:37 PM GMT

Our handicapper looks deep into some splits to come up with one pick, yet the other is just following a basic trend. Read on as he lays out the numbers and makes his Friday MLB Picks of the Day.

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2017 MLB Record, 119-100-7, +8.92 Units, 3.61% ROI

Oakland Athletics vs Chicago White Sox

Our MLB handicapper spots a trend on Friday’s MLB card that can’t be passed up, as well as a pitcher having success in a sneaky way.

The Oakland Athletics have the worst road record in the American League and start this road trip after getting crushed by the Houston Astros at home. Hey, at least they’ll have the recent home sweep of the Yankees to feel good about. They’ll put Jharel Cotton on the mound, who is actually their best road starter with a 3.74 ERA in that split. Early season successes sway his numbers though, as Cotton put up a 6.73 FIP in May and 6.30 FIP in June. But anything I say about Cotton does not improve the Athletics’ 9-25 road record to start the season.

They’ll face Mike Pelfrey of the White Sox, who has actually increased his strikeout rate to 2013 levels. Although it wasn’t great to begin with, the swinging strike rate on pitches in the zone is a positive sign. Pelfrey has reduced his fastball usage about 10% in direct relation to an increase in curveball usage. He’s done this while keeping his control in check and his walk rate has stayed static. Pelfrey’s FIP has gone down through the first few months of the season from 5.91 in April, 4.28 in May, to 3.51 in June. I’ll back Pelfrey’s 2.83 ERA and .221 BAA at home against a team that can’t win on the road, taking the White Sox at a reasonable -110 at Heritage as one of my Friday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Chicago -110Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Texas Rangers vs New York Yankees

Our handicapper sees an angle, but only wants to bet that exact one. Read on as he delivers a winner fading a struggling pitcher in New York.

Masahiro Tanaka has a 28.9% HR/FB rate in May, and has put up a 38.9% HR/FB rate in June. Now I can’t just say “fade Tanaka” and have this article be over, because then the Google search won’t pick it up to pay the big man. However, that is the crux of the issue here and Tanaka can only be trusted to do one thing – give up some runs.

With a total of 10 listed for this game and the Rangers listed as underdogs we can reasonably expect that their first 5 inning team total will be listed at 2.5 runs at near even money. That is good enough for me, as Tanaka has a 5.05 FIP split in the first time through the rotation and a 6.24 FIP in the 2nd. This will be a tough full game to handicap because of the bullpens, so I am taking out most of the variables by zeroing in on the Texas Rangers first 5 inning team total Over, listed at 5Dimes about 6 hours before first pitch.

Free MLB Pick: Texas 1h Team Total OverBest Line Offered: at 5Dimes