Picks of the Day for June 18th

Mark Lathrop

Sunday, June 18, 2017 2:17 PM UTC

Sunday, Jun. 18, 2017 2:17 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper, Mark Lathrop, will be in the Red Mountain vineyards on Sunday, but that doesn't stop him from giving us his Sunday  Picks of the Day. Read on as he breaks down two midwest matchups that we can profit from.

2017 MLB Record, 110-95-6, +5.71 Units, 2.38% ROI

Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers 

Our MLB Handicapper likes the prospect of one of Seattle’s AAA fill-in starters in the Texas heat on Sunday as a recipe for runs scored. Read on as he breaks down how to wager this AL West matchup.

Christian Bergman hasn’t had much luck pitching on the road this year, and by luck I mean his sky high .412 BABIP in that situation. However, he has been bad at the things he does control as well and has put up an 8.33 FIP. The very strange thing about his results on the road is his complete lack of strikeouts against right-handers. At home Bergman is carrying a 10.03 K/9 rate and away from Safeco it is a subpar 1.00 K/9 rate. A discrepancy of that size can’t be anything but a fluke, but if we middle Bergman’s home and away splits we still have a AAA pitcher.

Yu Darvish is approaching how many innings he pitched last year already this season at 89. His K/9 rates are down versus 2016 and BB/9 rate is up. Darvish is running a very lucky .230 BABIP on the season, which should normalize towards his career .286 rate soon. His FIP is up a run over last year at 4.11 and his HR/FB rate of 16.3% at home is a bit of a vulnerability. With Bergman opposing him, he won’t have to be perfect, and I’m expecting that Darvish will cough up enough runs for the Over of 10 to cash at Pinnacle.

Free MLB Pick: Over 10Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Cleveland Indians vs Minnesota Twins

Mark Lathrop thinks it is time to start fading the Twins in general, as he looks for their surprising hot start to end. This game is a prime matchup to take the eventual AL Central champions Cleveland Indians.

Kyle Gibson gets this start for the Twins after a game in which he got 20 runs of support against Seattle. It’s a good thing too, as Gibson gave up 12 hits and 6 earned runs. His splits are awful this year to both left and right-handed batters. On the season, Gibson has given up a .336 batting average to left handers and a .310 average to righties. It won’t take much creativity to come up with a lineup to take advantage of those splits.

Gibson will face Trevor Bauer of the Indians, and although Bauer is only 5-5 on decisions he has an xFIP of 3.50. With his ERA at 5.85 this tells us that Bauer has gotten unlucky with the long ball so far this season. His career 11.8% HR/FB rate has been fairly static over the last four seasons, so the 20.7% HR/FB rate this year looks like a fluke. Bauer has beat the Twins handily twice this year and I will back him to do it again on Sunday at -133 at Heritage as one of my Sunday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Cleveland -133 Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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