Picks of the Day for June 17th

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Saturday, June 17, 2017 2:12 PM GMT

Our MLB handicapper, Mark Lathrop, analyzes two of the games with the highest totals listed for Saturday action. One is an obvious pitching mismatch, while the other just might surprise you as he makes his Picks of the Day.

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2017 MLB Record, 108-93-6, +6.33 Units, 2.66% ROI

Cleveland Indians vs Minnesota Twins

It’s good to keep track of what is working and in this case our MLB handicapper can remember all the way back to Monday, when he faded Minnesota starter Adalberto Mejia. He suggests doing so again on Saturday.

Adalberto Mejia is the worst pitcher in a rotation that is ranked 23rd in ERA and FIP in the major leagues. This is about the time to start selling hard on the Twins, and this matchup with the AL Central favorite Cleveland Indians is a great place to start. Mejia just got rocked by Seattle, cashing me the Over in the early innings of a game played on Monday. I’m seeing a slight drop in velocity for him as well as the year has progressed. I don’t think this is surprising considering that the 23-year old has only pitched a high of 131 innings in any year of his career. Walks are of course a big culprit as well and Mejia runs a 4.75 BB/9 rate on the season.

Mejia will face Cleveland call-up, Ryan Merritt, who was a late season reliever for the Indians last year. The lefty is a classic right-handed batter specialist and ran a .133 batting average split against them in his 2016 relief appearances. The Twins can rotate some lefties into their lineup (Mauer, Kepler, Rosario), but the bulk of their damage comes from the right side. I’d expect max effort from Merritt here for 4-5 innings, then for the excellent Cleveland bullpen and their MLB 3rd best 3.21 FIP to come in on mop up duty. Getting Cleveland at -115 is a steal here, so take them on the moneyline early at BetOnline as one of your Saturday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Cleveland -115Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies

Our MLB handicapper has apparently lost his mind and is picking an Under at Coors Field. Here he shares his reasoning for the pick.

I guess this is similar to auto-betting Overs for any total in the 6’s, but I just can’t help but take an under in this situation where the books have hung a 12 out in Colorado. I understand it will be in the 80’s at game time, but there will be no wind. We also have two starting pitchers that have good ground ball rates and two of the best bullpens in baseball. The rest is frankly luck on if the ground balls will be hit at fielders.

Matt Cain starts for the Giants and runs a 45.1 GB% vs. 33.2 FB%. Lefty Kyle Freeland starts for the Rockies and has a 57.8 GB% vs. a 25.3 FB%. Both pitchers have acceptable HR/FB rates on the year as well. We don’t need a shutout from either one to cash an Under of 12. The Under is 16-13 coming into Friday night’s opener in this series, so I will back that trend given the value of the number here and take Under 12 at BetOnline as one of my Saturday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Under 12 Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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