Picks of the Day for June 15th

Mark Lathrop

Thursday, June 15, 2017 12:41 PM UTC

Thursday, Jun. 15, 2017 12:41 PM UTC

A short Thursday slate still offers up plenty of value for the keen handicapper. Read on as our MLB expert, Mark Lathrop, backs a rookie and fades a veteran as he makes his Thursday MLB Picks of the Day.

[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/PfzX5854EwI", "videoSize":"Large" }[/] Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox

Chris Tillman appears to be broken, and our MLB handicapper thinks that even the White Sox will be able to avenge an early season loss to him on Thursday afternoon.

As written up here by the well-researched, Jeff Sullivan, Chris Tillman of the Orioles has not been himself this year. In that article, Jeff does a fantastic job of describing the differences in Tillman’s delivery of his fastballs since coming back from the DL. What do you really need to know about it as a sports bettor? That Tillman is not good right now and isn’t going to magically get better for this start against the White Sox. I was screaming to the Twitter-verse (@mlathrop3) to fade Tillman last week against the Yankees. He gave up 9 earned runs in 1.1 innings – cashing team total overs and of course the Yanks run line. Fade Tillman until he eventually goes on the DL again. Take the White Sox on the moneyline  at BookMaker as one of your MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Chicago White Sox -104 Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels

Matt Strahm comes out of the bullpen for the Royals to get his first major league start. Mark Lathrop thinks that he is worth backing, even if he is on a pitch count.

Matt Strahm has an interesting stat line and an inflated ERA and FIP because of his first two appearances of the year – the only appearances in which he gave up multiple runs. He’s been very good otherwise, as his 2.08 ERA in May and 2.45 ERA in June suggests. This is his first start though, so he will be on a pitch count of about 70 pitches according to the Royals. As a starter in the minors in AA Strahm put up a 3.72 WHIP and 2.02 BB/9 rate. Strahm’s fastball can hit 97 from the left side, and his curveball is plus-plus. His ability to locate his curveball is a huge boon to his effectiveness.

Strahm will face Ricky Nolasco, who is 2-7 on the year over 13 starts with a 5.62 FIP. Nolasco has lost five decisions in a row and has not won a decision since April. His walk rates and HR/FB% has doubled over last year. Nolasco is also allowing a .272 average against lefties and .286 average against righties. Kansas City’s offense is hot, and they shouldn’t have an issue tagging Nolasco for a few runs early here. With max effort from Strahm on a pitch count, I believe backing the Royals at plus odds on the moneyline for the first 5 innings is the way go for my Thursday MLB Pick of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Pick Kansas City ML F5Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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