Picks of the Day for June 14th

MLB Picks of the Day thumbnail

Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, June 14, 2017 12:42 PM GMT

Our MLB handicapper looks to turn his June around by digging deep into the Wednesday MLB betting card to find us the best value out there. Read on as he finds a total and first 5-inning side as his two MLB Picks of the Day.

[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/dHyJiE8pfB4", "videoSize":"Large" }[/] Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins

The Twins lead the AL Central, but eventually their huge negative run differential is going to catch up with them. In this spot, their ace goes up against the Seattle Mariners who have been hot of late.

Ervin Santana’s BABIP luck is one of the reason that the Twins are in first place in the AL Central, and this luck has created a huge 2.20 ERA versus 4.46 FIP difference on his stats line. However, Santana is one of those pitchers that has run a positive FIP differential throughout his entire career. He’s been able to keep the ball in the yard, rare this year, and carries a 10.9% HR/FB rate. The bottom line is that other than 3 duds in 13 starts he has put up what counts most, results. Those three starts are the only ones in which Santana has given up more than one run.

Starting for the Mariners in this game is Sam Gaviglio, who got a spot in the rotation after Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma hit the DL. He’s been very effective, even if his results have been a bit odd. You see, Gaviglio has started 5 games this year and given up over 1 run in just one of those starts. But in three of those starts he’s given up just one run on a solo dinger. This is why his 24% HR/FB rate on the year hasn’t cost him much and he is still running a 2.79 ERA. It also partially explains his 5.42 FIP. An early line of 10.5 has opened at Pinnacle for this game and I think that either of these pitchers has an excellent chance to pitch well. I’m expecting this line to drop to 10, so take the 10.5 now as one of your MLB Wednesday Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick Under 10.5Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3140202, "sportsbooksIds":[238,93,1096,1275,123], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

 

Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox

The Orioles take their nearly AL worst away record to Chicago this week. Our MLB handicapper sees a situation in which they should not be favored over the White Sox.

Dylan Bundy gets the start for the Orioles in this game and he is on my watch list of pitchers with declining velocity. His fastball is down 2.5 ticks over last year and that is with his 2016 relief appearances being taken into consideration. His overall numbers are skewed by a very hot April, but he has put up a 3.92 ERA in May and 4.09 ERA in June. He’s also developed quite a streak of games allowing a home run at 7. His slugging percentage allowed has increased from .316 in April, to .458 in May, to .525 in June. It may be that Bundy is a cold weather pitcher and the heat of summer will do him no good, especially with a slower fastball that is carrying a reduced whiff rate.

Bundy will face Miguel Gonzalez, who gets his second start of the year against Baltimore. The first one was a loss even after Gonzalez only gave up 2 runs over 6 innings pitched while putting up a 5/1 K/BB rate. Gonzalez is due for some positive regression here, but I don’t trust the White Sox bullpen to hold this game. In looking for Bundy to fail I will back the underdog White Sox on the first 5 inning moneyline at plus money, or the +.5 run line if it is reasonable (under -130) as one of my Wednesday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Chicago White Sox ML F5Best Line Offered: **No Halftime Lines Offered At The Moment**

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3139894, "sportsbooksIds":[238,93,1096,1275,123], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]