Picks of the Day for June 1st

Mark Lathrop

Thursday, June 1, 2017 12:38 PM UTC

Thursday, Jun. 1, 2017 12:38 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper just completed a very profitable month of May. As he starts June he finds two road underdogs with significant value as he makes his Thursday Picks of the Day.

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2017 MLB Record, 86-74-6, +3.81 Units, 1.98% ROI

Colorado Rockies vs Seattle Mariners

The Colorado Rockies and Seattle Mariners finish up a strange home-and-home 4 game series on Thursday afternoon. Seattle starts a pitcher who has started a trend of losing his control as games have progressed.

Yovani Gallardo starts this home game for the Seattle Mariners, a place where he currently carries a 7.00 ERA and .300 batting average allowed. In Safeco, Gallardo has just about as many walks and home runs allowed (15) as strikeouts (17). While Gallardo increases his groundball rate the 2nd and 3rd time through the rotation, he also gets hit harder in those at bats and also sees his BB/9 rate almost double. The 2nd time a batter sees Gallardo is the most dangerous, a situation in which he is giving up a 31.3% HR/FB rate and .291 batting average allowed. I’m assuming that right handers are doing the most damage, as they bat a robust .336 against him on the season with a .523 slugging percentage.

The Rockies’ Kyle Freeland gets the start opposite of Gallardo, and even though his ERA for May is 3.90 – well above his 2.93 April mark – his batting average allowed for the month sits at just .225. Freeland has allowed only 3 runs or less in 8 starts in a row now, which should be proficient to beat the Mariners here. With James Paxton on a pitch count on Wednesday for the M’s, I’m also thinking that the Seattle bullpen will be short staffed on Thursday afternoon. Take the Rockies as small underdogs on the moneyline at +116 at Bookmaker, and also Over 8.5 runs as I’m predicting a score in the 7-4 range.

Free MLB Pick: Colorado +114 & Over 8.5Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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Oakland Athletics vs Cleveland Indians

Our MLB handicapper spots a line in which one team is being offered at nearly parlay odds on the moneyline. A deeper analysis of the matchup suggests this game is a tossup – creating excellent value on the side.

If someone asked you if you wanted to play a game where you got paid 2 to 1 to call a coin toss you’d likely take that wager. Such is the case in this game as we have two pitchers facing each other with a 4.32 FIP and 4.73 FIP. Is that difference really worth the -212 chalk you would have to put on the Cleveland Indians over the Oakland Athletics?

Jharel Cotton gets this start for the Athletics and he has had success against some of the top offenses in the American League. He allowed 3 or less runs in games against New York, Minnesota, Houston, and Seattle this season. Cotton’s ERA on the road is a sparkly 3.13 where he also gives up a .200 batting average allowed. This pitcher has better than a puncher’s chance here, so grab this line early as we won’t find Oakland at +196 for Thursday much longer.

Free MLB Pick: Oakland +196 Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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