Picks of the Day for July 7th

MLB Picks of the Day thumbnail

Mark Lathrop

Friday, July 7, 2017 1:43 PM GMT

Coming off of a sweep, our MLB handicapper looks to keep things going by going back to the well with one pick and fading a struggling pitcher with the other. Read on as he looks to finish the week strong as he makes his MLB Picks of the Day.

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2017 MLB Record, 131-119-7, +1.25 Units

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays  

The Red Sox and Rays continue their AL East series on Friday as the Red Sox try to create some distance in the race for the division. Our MLB handicapper likes the value presented with the pitching matchup.

Jake Odorizzi takes the mound for the Rays on Friday night, who is coming off of a rare winning decision of late. In his last 8 starts the right-hander has only picked up 3 decisions, period. Odorizzi continues to get bit by the long ball, and has given up a home run in 14 of his 15 starts. The lone start he didn’t give up a home run? A one-inning performance at Boston in which he left due to injury. This is a multi-season trend for him, as his HR/FB% has gone from 9.0% in 2015, to 12.0% in 2016, and finally to 17.8% in 2017. Odorizzi has an FIP of 5.51 that is elevated because of his 3.06 BB/9 rate and 2.04 HR/9 rate.

Starting for Boston is Drew Pomeranz, who has been solid on the year with an 8-4 record and 3.63 FIP. He has improved on his walk rates over 2016, which currently sit at 7.6%, while his K rate is at 25.8%. The big outlier for Pomeranz is his BABIP of .322, currently 39 points over his career average. I’ll take Pomeranz and his 4 years of FIP’s in the 3’s over the homer-prone Odorizzi here and back the Red Sox at -129 on the moneyline at Pinnacle.

Free MLB Pick: Boston Red Sox MLBest Line Offered: at Pinnacle  

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Chicago White Sox vs Colorado Rockies

Two totals streaks collide when the Chicago White Sox travel to the Colorado Rockies to start a weekend series in Denver. Our MLB handicapper believes there is no reason to start picking against the home team’s recent trend.

I picked an Under yesterday in Colorado and I’m here to go back to the well. The Under has cashed 8-0-1 in the Rockies last 9 games, and their last 4 games at home. The Rockies will welcome the White Sox to Coors Field who have cashed 6 Overs in a row coming into this matchup. The White Sox will send Derek Holland to the mound, a left-hander that has not been good on the road with a 5.88 FIP. He’ll face a Rockies team that scores just 4.4 runs per game and bats .253 against lefties, and helping him will be a White Sox bullpen that has a 3.86 FIP on the year.

Starting for the Rockies will be fireballer, German Marquez. He has an above average 4.02 FIP and will be seeing the White Sox for the first time. I like that prospect for run suppression, and a short-handed AL lineup in an NL park to boot. Not to mention, the Rockies bullpen has been very good this year with a 3.94 FIP. I’ll take Under the sky high total of 12.5 as one of my Friday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Under 12.5 runs Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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