Picks of the Day for July 6th

Mark Lathrop

Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:27 PM UTC

Thursday, Jul. 6, 2017 12:27 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper comes off of a winning day to give us his Thursday MLB Picks of the Day. Read on as he finds two match ups dripping with value and worthy of "low hanging fruit" status.

[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/QSNOx_O2HnM", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies

The worst team in the National League gets a visit from the from the Pittsburgh Pirates on Thursday evening, and a pitcher with newfound velocity takes the mound to face the Phillies.

Chad Kuhl gets this start for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and after his fastball averaged 93.2 mph in 2016 it averages 95.1 mph in 2017. He’s even averaged 97-plus in games in recent months. He hasn’t turned this into an All-Star campaign… yet, but the recent results are promising. Looking at the splits his ERA has continually dropped throughout the season: 6.26 in April, 5.81, in May, 4.50 in June, and one six-inning one-run start in July. He’s had an issue with lefties on the year, but has been solid against righties with a .236 batting average allowed. Philly doesn’t have the lineup to take advantage of his lefty deficit.

The Phillies counter with Jeremy Hellickson, who oddly enough has a better record than Chad Kuhl on the year. He’s due for some FIP regression though, as his 4.48 ERA is much better than his 5.59 FIP indicates. Hellickson’s K-rate has dropped from 7.33 to 4.58 on the year, and his BABIP sits 25 points below his career average. Hellickson won a game at Pittsburgh earlier this year, but the BABIP of .105 in that game looks more like the Pirates couldn’t find holes. I’ll take the Pirates in this matchup at -126 on the moneyline at BookMaker as one of my Thursday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates -136Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies  

The weather in Colorado has led to some crazy totals lately, including the one given for tonight’s game. Our MLB handicapper thinks an Under call is prudent given the pitching matchup on Thursday.

There is a huge total posted for the Rockies game on Thursday, and most of it you would think is being caused by AAA call up, Sal Romano. And well, of course, there is Coors Field in the summer being a factor. Romano has a plus-plus fastball though and has limited home runs on the season in AAA – only giving up one home run in 47 innings pitched in AAA this year. I think he has a decent shot at a good outing and converting his 3.39 AAA FIP into major league success in this game.

Tyler Chatwood starts this game for the Rockies and he will look to get over his walks issue this year. He’s running a 4.77 BB/9 rate on the year, much higher than his 3.99 rate in 2016. About 2.25 BB/9 is the mean in the league, so Chatwood is doubling that rate. The stuff is there for Chatwood to put together a fine performance though as he only gives up a .238 BAA to lefties and .227 BAA to righties. I’ll back him and Romano to get us under this sky-high total of 12.5 in this game, currently found at 5Dimes.

Free MLB Pick: Under 12.5 RunsBest Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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