Picks of the Day for July 30th

Mark Lathrop

Sunday, July 30, 2017 1:57 PM UTC

Sunday, Jul. 30, 2017 1:57 PM UTC

Our handicapper, Mark Lathrop, has been hotter than the July sunshine with his MLB Picks of the day over the last week. Read on as he finds two great lines for this Sunday's action.

2017 MLB Record, 154-136-8, +6.57 Units (2 Pending)

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies

This NL East matchup faces two pitchers with an FIP over 5, yet the total line opened at just 9. Our MLB handicapper thinks we should act early to get that line now on the Over.

Vince Velasquez starts this game for the Phillies, and he’s probably wishing it wasn’t a home start because he’s pitched horribly at Citizens Bank Park this year. In those home starts Velasquez has a 6.82 ERA, .301 BAA, .603 SLG (dingers!), and a 6.02 FIP. He strikes out more batters at home, but also walks opponents more at a 3.86 BB/9 rate. Velasquez’s HR/FB rate of 24.6% is atrocious and in only one of his 12 starts has he failed to give up a home run. This will be his first start against the Braves this season.

Starting for the Braves is R.A. Dickey, who had his knuckleball finally leave him in his last two starts. He’s given up 4 runs in each after a stretch of 5 games in which he gave up only one earned run or less. On the year, Dickey’s FIP sits at 5.08 and with his trends of streakiness, both good and bad, I’m looking for him to give up a few runs here. With Velasquez terrible at home I’ll take the Over in this game at the reasonable line of 9 runs at Heritage as one of my Sunday MLB Picks of the Day.

MLB Pick: Over 9 RunsBest Line Offered: at Heritage

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 N.Y. Mets vs Seattle Mariners

The Mariner faithful have literally planted a maple tree in the outfield for James Paxton – calling it the Maple Grove after the big Canadian. I see no reason to fade him here with that good syrup flowing lately.

After a bit of a rough patch since returning from the DL it looks like Mariners ace, James Paxton, has regained his form. The big lefty is throwing an easy 97-99 mph late into games and holds a 1.50 FIP in July. Going along with that July split is a 38/6 K/BB ratio and a .164 batting average allowed. Simply put, Paxton is untouchable right now and has 2 or less runs in 5 winning decisions in a row – including games against Houston and Boston.

The only thing in the way of Paxton’s 11th win of the season is Seth Lugo getting his 9th start of the year for the Mets. Lugo struggles against right handers this year and gives up a .283 BAA and .510 SLG against them. The bats that usually carry the Mariners over the top are right handers, so this is not a good match up for Lugo on Sunday. He also carries a .296 BAA, .147 WHIP, and 4.50 FIP split on the road. I like this spot for the Mariners and Paxton so I’ll be taking Seattle on the run line as one of my Sunday MLB selections.

Free MLB Pick: Seattle Mariners RLBest Line Offered: at BetOnline

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