Picks of the Day for July 3rd

Mark Lathrop

Sunday, July 2, 2017 9:41 PM UTC

Sunday, Jul. 2, 2017 9:41 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper looks to bring us in-depth analysis as he starts the month of July with a winning ATS record on the year. He's found two home teams on the Monday betting card with fantastic value as he makes hisPicks of the Day.

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Toronto Blue Jays vs N.Y. Yankees

Our MLB handicapper spots an indicator that has him finally willing to back New York’s Masahiro Tanaka. Read on as he explains why Tanaka may be ready to go on a little run.

New York Yankees’ starter, Masahiro Tanaka, has had a rough start to his season, but looks to finally be coming out of his funk. One great indicator that I see is that his fastball velocity is ticking upwards in June. This is especially important considering his fastball had dropped to a 92 mph average in May – a month that he put up an 8.42 ERA. In Tanaka’s last start against the White Sox his fastball averaged 94.7 mph. That game was a win for Tanaka, and the one before was an 8-inning shutout no decision against the Rangers. It’s the best string of starts for Tanaka this season and I expect that trend to continue.

Tanaka will face Marcus Stroman on the road in Toronto, who has been solid this year save for 3 duds amongst his 16 starts. One of those games was against the Yankees in early May and most have a common thread of multiple run dingers. Stroman has always had an elevated HR/FB rate and his 2017 rate is 19.7%. But overall, Stroman has been effective with a 3.96 FIP on the season. Still, I will take the hot Tanaka here given Stroman’s recent outing against the Yankees, with a pick on the Yankees at home -128 on the moneyline at 5Dimes as one of my MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Yankees -128Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners

Seattle’s Andrew Moore had a successful first MLB start last week. In this game he draws the Kansas City Royals at home after a short 3-game road trip.

This is a must win stretch for the Seattle Mariners, as they have a long series of home games before the All-Star Break. On the mound for them is call-up, Andrew Moore, who took Yovani Gallardo’s place in the rotation. Moore had a good first outing against Detroit, giving up 3 runs in an efficient 7-inning performance where he walked nobody. Control is the name of the game for Moore, who’s fastball sits at 91 mph and secondary offerings in the low 80’s. He’s had success at every level of the minors and had a 3.06 ERA through 53 innings at AAA Tacoma this year.

Moore will face Ian Kennedy of the Kansas City Royals, who hit the road after a short 4-game set with the Minnesota Twins. Kennedy is in the midst of the least effective year of his career and has an FIP of 5.64 through 74.1 innings pitched. It could be worse for Kennedy as well, because his BABIP of .201 on the year is 83 points below his career average. I believe there is value here fading Kennedy and backing Moore who is seeing Kansas City for the first time. I’ll take the Mariners at -127 on the moneyline at home at Pinnacle as one of my Monday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick:  Seattle Mariners -127Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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