Picks of the Day for July 28th

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Mark Lathrop

Friday, July 28, 2017 1:15 PM GMT

With two plays pending our handicapper searches Friday's card early to snag some opening line action. Mark Lathrop finds two games with lines he likes as he breaks down his MLB Picks of the Day.

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2017 MLB Record, 152-134-8, +6.67 Units (2 Pending)

Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox

A rare momentum play for our data-minded handicapper here, as he doesn’t see the value in fading a hot Royals team coming into this game on an 8-game winning streak.

Jason Vargas bounced back in his last game after two atrocious games to start July. Usually one to keep the ball in the yard, Vargas got tagged for 5 home runs in those starts over 7.2 innings. Judging by the rest of his season I don’t think those performances will be repeated here. His above average 4.12 FIP and 9.2% HR/FB rate should be in play and he should get some run support from his hot offense behind him.

That hot KC offense will match up against David Price who is not only coming off of a bad plane ride, but also a 5-run 5 inning performance at the Angels. That start broke a series of 3 games in which he hadn’t given up more than two runs. He had another blow up start in New York in June and it took him a few games to get back on track. Although Price gets hit much harder at home, according to hard hit rate home/away splits, he hasn’t been punished for that… yet. I’m looking for some negative regression for him at home here, and will take the Royals with their 8-game winning streak to keep this game close. I’ll use the run line on KC at almost even money as a Friday MLB selection. 

Free MLB Pick: Kansas City RLBest Line Offered: at BetOnline

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Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers

Our MLB handicapper spots a line that is tainted by season long stats instead of looking at how the starters are pitching of late. In this situation, it favors an Under call against an inflated totals line.

Chris Tillman had a major distraction lifted on the 4th of July when his wife Christina gave birth to their first child. I’d be anxious too I’d imagine – and for the record Mrs. Tillman is pretty easy on the eyes. But I digress. Tillman has been solid on the mound since then, with a 3.14 ERA in July and a nice .200 BAA against. That includes a start against Houston during the insanely hot run they’ve had as well. It also includes a start just 11 days ago against Texas in which Tillman only gave up 1 run over 6 innings pitched. Hopefully “Daddy” can bring us some success one more time here.

Tillman will face Andrew Cashner who is a candidate for slight regression from his nice 3.64 ERA, but is still putting up average numbers overall. He’s been hot lately too, putting up a 2.75 ERA and .186 BAA in July. This includes that matchup that went under against Tillman 11 days ago, where Cashner gave up 3 earned runs over 6.2 innings pitched. With the line at 11 right now I believe that both of these pitchers can pull together average performances and cash an Under as one of my Friday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Under 11Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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