Picks of the Day for July 27th

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Mark Lathrop

Thursday, July 27, 2017 1:06 PM GMT

Mark Lathrop is going streaking with a 9-1 ATS run on his last 5 days of MLB Picks of the Day. He promises not to fade the Dodgers here, making it safe for us to tail him and bank a little coin on the Thursday MLB betting card.

[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/Jm0JbU3k97Y", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins

Two pitchers that shouldn’t be trusted to shut a team out start this game on Thursday in Cincinnati and our MLB handicapper likes the prospect of a high scoring game.

Robert Stephenson’s initiation into the Reds lineup was not a good one, as the right-hander gave up five runs through 5.1 innings at home against the Marlins. It was the second appearance in a row that Stephenson has given up multiple home runs. The Reds entire pitching staff is bad, so them going to a former 1st round pick for help is not a surprise. Them going to a 1st round pick with a 6.71 FIP is, however. Over 30 innings pitched this year, Stephenson allows a .348 BAA to lefties and a .305 BAA to righties. Not good by any stretch of the imagination, and it makes me think the not good bullpen of the Reds will also be heavily involved in this game.

The hot Marlins come into town and bring Chris O’Grady for his 4th MLB start of his career. His sample size is pretty small right now, but one could say his 6.00 BB/9 needs a bit of work! O’Grady has been very consistent in giving up three runs per start over 5 innings pitched and if he does that, combined with the Reds pitching deficiencies and the Marlins’ offensive momentum, the Over of 9.5 runs should be a good wager as one of my Thursday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Over 9.5 RunsBest Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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N.Y. Mets vs San Diego Padres

This isn’t just a AAA call up for the Mets. It’s a AA call up! Our MLB handicapper believes the talent can have some success and get us a low scoring game in San Diego.

Chris Flexen starts this game for the Mets after getting a rare call up skipping AAA. He’s been awesome this year at AA and has put up a 1.66 ERA and 2.69 FIP over 48.2 innings pitched. All of the peripherals are present and Flexen has excellent 9.25 K/9 and 1.29 BB/9 rates. Flexen is coming off of Tommy John surgery, but still sits at 92-96 with a wicked slider and two breaking balls he can throw for strikes.

Starting opposite of Flexen is Luis Perdomo of the Padres. I’ve been high on Perdomo all year because of his raw stuff, but his walk rates and HR rates leave a bit to be desired. His problems have centered around left-handers on the year though, with a .327 BAA given up against southpaws. The Mets don’t have a lineup to take advantage of this though, and with Perdomo at home I’ll back him to have a strong start here. Combined with Flexen’s electric stuff seeing the Mets for the first time, I like the Under of 8.5 runs here as one of my MLB selections.

Free MLB Pick: Under 8.5 RunsBest Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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