Picks of the Day for July 21st

Mark Lathrop

Friday, July 21, 2017 1:07 PM UTC

Friday, Jul. 21, 2017 1:07 PM UTC

Thursday saw some huge upsets on the MLB card. Luckily our handicapper, Mark Lathrop, doesn't have to resort to long shots to find betting value in Friday's action. Read on as he breaks down his MLB Picks of the Day!

2017 MLB Record, 143-131-8, +1.07 Units

Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals

The Royals used some Detroit fielding errors to help blow up one of the best pitchers in baseball on Thursday night – and blew up our MLB handicappers pick in the process. If you can’t beat them, join them.

The Kansas City Royals have a great chance of repeating yesterday’s offensive success against Chicago White Sox starter, James Shields. Shields had an early DL stint in April and hasn’t been right since coming back in June and his velocity keeps declining. He has put up an 8.48 FIP in June and 6.88 FIP in July. Shields has also given up multiple dingers in games quite often and is running a career high 2.34 HR/9 rate. It could be even worse for Shields, as he is also running a career low .244 BABIP against his career average of .297.

Chicago’s starter, Ian Kennedy, has some red flags of his own, but has been able to string together a few good starts and has a 3.86 FIP in July. Lost in the shuffle of his overall 5.27 FIP on the season is that Kennedy has been tough on batters from both sides of the plate – even if his BABIP is extraordinarily low. On the year, the right-hander has given up a .226 BAA to lefties and .189 BAA to righties. With the White Sox short-handed due to recent trades and the Royals certain to provide run support I’ll back Kansas City here on the run line at -1.5 +104 at Pinnacle for one of my Friday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Kansas City Royals RLBest Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds

This game features two pitchers with Fielding Independent Pitching marks of over 5. Our MLB handicapper believes that this indicates one or both will get lit up on Friday night.

Jose Urena starts this game for Miami after getting lit up by the Dodgers in his last start for five runs over 3 innings pitched. He’s not the first pitcher this year to get lit up by the Dodgers that’s for sure. Urena is set up for some negative FIP regression, as his ERA of 3.93 is much better than his FIP of 5.22 on the year. That FIP discrepancy is mostly due to a career low BABIP of .255 which indicates he has gotten lucky over his first 89.1 innings pitched. His K/9 and BB/9 rates are almost identical to last year when he put up a 6.13 ERA.

The All-Star break wasn’t good for Homer Bailey and in his first start back he gave up eight runs to the Washington Nationals. He’s had two good starts surrounded by some disasters and his FIP currently sits at 7.02. But really it is the fact that Bailey is walking twice as many batters as he did in his successful years that is doing him in. His velocity is going up and down and all around and he hasn’t gotten his feel back. In his terrible starts it has resulted in a lot of mistakes in the middle of the strike zone. There are some big Miami bats that will take advantage of this, and with Urena scheduled for regression I will take Over 10 in this game at 5Dimes as one of my Friday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Over 10Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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