Picks of the Day for July 20th

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Mark Lathrop

Thursday, July 20, 2017 12:33 PM GMT

Thursday, Jul. 20, 2017 12:33 PM GMT

Mark Lathrop comes off of a slump-busting sweep, which continues his strong month of July. Here he finds two great starters with value on the moneyline for his Thursday MLB Picks of the Day.
 

Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals

Michael Fulmer has put up a strong stretch of games in which he has won four decisions in a row. Our MLB handicapper doesn’t suggest that we start fading him anytime soon.

Michael Fulmer has been great in his second MLB season, as indicated by his 10 wins already and .230 BAA against lefties and .224 BAA against righties. He’s been able to induce a lot of weak contact over his last few starts in lieu of strikeouts, and has a .180 batting average allowed in July. He beat the Royals just a few weeks ago by going until the final out in the 9th inning and giving up just 2 earned runs and putting up a 7/0 K/BB rate.

Danny Duffy starts this game for the Royals and has a very good 3.60 FIP on the year. However, he’s developed a troublesome .271 batting average against split with righties this year that can be taken advantage of. Detroit is primed for this with most of their lineup coming from the right-handed side of the plate. With that fact and one of the best pitchers in baseball at just -117 on the moneyline in Fulmer I have to take the Tigers as one of my Thursday MLB selections.

Free MLB Pick: Detroit -111Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Our MLB handicapper has identified Jimmy Nelson as a “bet on” candidate for the foreseeable future. Here he finds Nelson as a rare underdog on the mound.

Jimmy Nelson has been a model of consistency this season and has put up quality start after quality start since April. He’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball since then and has put up a 2.48 FIP in May, 2.91 FIP in June, and 2.70 FIP in July. These are ace numbers and to find him as an underdog against the Pirates is something we shouldn’t pass up. Nelson has a 5-3 record when staring against Pittsburgh in his career.

Nelson will face Jameson Taillon who has also been good this year, but not as good as Nelson. Taillon has allowed batters to hit a robust .287 against him at home this year and is coming off one of his worst performances of his season las week. His average fastball velocity dropped almost 2 mph in that start, a start in which he got hit around hard by the Cardinals, which brings some uncertainty into backing him in this spot. I’ll take Nelson in the rare underdog position and take the Brewers on the moneyline as one of my Thursday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Milwaukee +122Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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