Picks of the Day for July 19th

Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, July 19, 2017 12:31 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jul. 19, 2017 12:31 PM UTC

Our handicapper, Mark Lathrop, is licking his wounds after getting swept in a bad way on Tuesday evening. He's back to fulfill his duty with some strong angles as he give us his Wednesday's Picks of the Day

2017 MLB Record, 141-129-8, +1.14 Units

Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles

Our MLB handicapper got his ass handed to him by taking the Under in the 2nd game of this series, as one pitcher kept his end of the bargain and the other was flying rubber dog shit out of Hong Kong. This was the Over on the schedule for the series and he is sticking to his top guns.

There is something wrong with Kevin Gausman this year, as his FIP of 4.10 in 2016 has ballooned to 5.13 in 2017. In exactly 50% of his starts he has given up 4 runs or more, and in his last two starts he’s only lasted 7 innings combined while giving up 13 earned runs. The strikeouts are there though so it is a confusing development, but the bottom line is that Gausman can’t be trusted not to get lit up in a start right now.

The Rangers start Martin Perez this game, who will be hard pressed to put some innings in after the shit-show Tyson Ross displayed on Tuesday. He’s pitched 7 innings twice this year in 17 tries, so odds are we will see the 23rd ranked MLB bullpen on Wednesday. That certainty combined with Gausman’s struggles have me taking the Over of 10.5 runs in this game at Heritage as one of my Wednesday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Over 10.5 RunsBest Line Offered: at Heritage

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L.A. Dodgers vs Chicago White Sox

Our handicapper spots a pitcher returning from injury with a troubling velocity trend. Unfortunately, he’s going up against the hottest team in baseball in the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Carlos Rodon may be the only player that the White Sox keep by the trade deadline, as the 3rd overall pick in the 2014 draft makes his 4th start of the season. He got lit up in his last start giving up six runs over 5.1 innings at Colorado. When examining his game logs, I’m seeing that his velocity is declining in each start since his return. Rodon’s average fastball was 94.6 mph on June 26th, 93.4 mph on July 3rd, and 92.8 mph on July 9th. Now, he’ll have 10 days off between starts here, but that trend is still in place and he’ll be facing the Dodgers offense on Wednesday.

Rodon will go up against Kenta Maeda of the Dodgers, who like most of the Dodgers is having a decent season this year. He’s put up an above-average 3.96 FIP on the year, and has also been consistent against both sides of the plate allowing a .238 BAA against lefties and a .244 BAA against righties. With Maeda on the mound instead of Wood or Kershaw for the Dodgers we also have a line that has some value left in it. I’m taking the Dodgers -1.5 at Heritage at almost even money as one of my Wednesday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers RLBest Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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