Picks of the Day for August 30th

Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, August 30, 2017 12:32 PM UTC

Wednesday, Aug. 30, 2017 12:32 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper is on two totals that have strong trends and peripheral stats to back them. Read on as he gets us past hump day with a profit with his Picks of the Day.

[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/5vyuA5XAkgs", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies

Because of a postponed game, our MLB handicapper gets to share a derivative pick he made a day later. In this instance, it is a first 5 inning team total.

I was looking forward to the Braves visiting the Phillies yesterday, as I believed the game had a great chance of scoring early runs in the first 5 innings. A postponement has the Phillies changing pitchers to Jerad Eickhoff, yet Atlanta still has R.A. Dickey on the mound. Dickey is doing his job of eating innings for this understaffed Atlanta rotation, and has a 4.88 FIP over 153 IP on the season. He’s pitched fantastic against the Phillies this year to the tune of 1 earned run over 14 innings pitched with a 16/3 K/9 rate. This third time around he will face a different Phillies lineup, one cocky with the inclusion of Rhys Hoskins. Hoskins has put up an insane 208 wRC+ through 80 at bats on the season with a 1.236 OPS.

The wager I had going yesterday was the Phillies Over 2 runs on the first 5 inning line. I don’t mind repeating that here, even with the juice of -130 presented at 5Dimes. It’s hard to beat a team 3 times in a row, and I expect Dickey to give up at least those 2 runs in the first half of the game. In fact, 2 runs would be less than average for him. I’ll back Philadelphia’s team total Over on the first 5 inning line at 5Dimes again as one of my Wednesday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Atlanta Team Total Over 2 F5Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers broke a streak of 8 games going under the total on Tuesday night, and we think that is a short-lived trend coming into Wednesday’s game against the Cardinals.

The Brewers offense has been struggling lately and have not scored more than 4 runs in seven games straight. They will get no reprise here as they face Carlos Martinez of the Cardinals, who owns a 3.85 FIP on the season and a .246 BAA and 1.21 WHIP in August. Martinez last faced the Brewers on August 1st in Milwaukee and only gave up 3 runs in a 3-2 Brewer win. That game started a string of 5 starts in which Martinez has given up 3 earned runs or less per game, even with 5 home runs over that span.

Chase Anderson will take the mound for the Brewers to try to atone for last night’s 12-2 spanking at the hands of the Cardinals. In a half a season’s work, Anderson has posted a 7-3 record and 3.54 FIP. He has shown no weaknesses on either side of the plate and carries a .220 BAA against both lefties and righties this year. The total line has shot up to 9 in this game quickly – a line I find very reasonable given Milwaukee’s recent struggles at the plate. I’ll be taking Under 9 here as another Wednesday MLB Pick of the Day.

Free MLB Picks: Under 9 RunsBest Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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