Picks of the Day for August 29th

Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, August 29, 2017 12:32 PM UTC

Tuesday, Aug. 29, 2017 12:32 PM UTC

Mark Lathrop is in the midst of an 11-3 ATS run, so we will read what he has to say closely as we examine the Tuesday MLB betting card. Inquire within for his Tuesday MLB Picks of the Day!

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2017 MLB Record, 183-160-9, +11.12 Units

L.A. Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks

We spot a line that must be taken advantage of in the NL West, as the Dodgers look to avenge a ridiculous loss for their starting pitcher, Rich Hill.

Rich Hill is coming off of a start in which he lost a perfect game due to an error in the 9th inning. It’s the first time in history that has happened. Hill also became the third pitcher in 26 years to throw 9 no-hit innings and still lose the game. So rare is Hill’s performance that we fail to appreciate just how weird it is that he was in the position to throw that game in the first place. Hill had pitched a total of 162.1 innings over 8 seasons from 2008 to 2015, before resurrecting his career with a 12-5 season in 2016 over 110.1 innings and a 2.39 FIP.

Hill will face Zack Godley of Arizona in this game, who has seen his walk rate skyrocket in August. He’s approaching his most innings pitched of any year of his professional career, so straight up fatigue can’t be discounted here. His BB/9 of 4.08 in August is a trend in the wrong direction, as his FIP of 4.10. He last pitched against the Dodgers on August 8th and gave up 2 home runs over 6.2 innings pitched. On paper, Hill is the better pitcher, but it is the emotional factor of paying back Hill for a job well done in his last start that has me taking the Dodgers on the moneyline as one of my Tuesday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers MLBest Line Offered: at BetDSI

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Detroit Tigers vs Colorado Rockies

We've been great at picking off Unders in Colorado, and he’ll change his tune here as the Rockies take on the Tigers in another interleague matchup.

Michael Fulmer’s pitching for the Tigers has dropped off of a cliff lately, and August has been his worst month by far. Even though he has an ERA of 3.69 and FIP of 3.60 on the entire season, Fulmer has just a 5.02 FIP in August and his BB/9 rate has nearly doubled this month to a 4.00 mark. His line drive rate also signifies trouble with a rate that has increased to 28.8% from 20.9% in July. Normally a severe ground ball pitcher, Fulmer has seen that rate decrease as well over the last few months. Not a good sign for a start at Coors Field.

Fulmer will face German Marquez of the Rockies, who has done well for me as a pick on the Colorado side over the year. The 22-year old is getting his first full season as a starter though, and is just now showing some chinks in the armor. Marquez has given up almost twice as many home runs in August as he has in other months this year, with a nasty 6.13 FIP to boot over the monthly split. I feel like we are getting some value on the total line with the full season ERA’s as they are with these starters, so I will be taking the Over of 11 as one of my Tuesday MLB selections.

Free MLB Pick: Over 11 RunsBest Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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