Picks of the Day for August 27th

Mark Lathrop

Sunday, August 27, 2017 1:51 PM UTC

Sunday, Aug. 27, 2017 1:51 PM UTC

Some prime matchups take place on Sunday in MLB action, and our handicapper, Mark Lathrop, has the obvious angles to bring us some smart wagers as we finish up the week.

Tampa Bay Rays vs St. Louis Cardinals

Tampa Bay has come into fine form over the last week, winning against other contenders for the 2nd American League wild card spot. They look to continue their hot play against interleague opponent St. Louis on Sunday afternoon.

Chris Archer is on his way to his 5th successful season with the Rays, and is looking for his 10th win on the year against the St. Louis Cardinals. His strikeout rate is the best it has been in his career as well, sitting at 11.33 K/9 on the season, while his BB/9 is sitting at the lowest in his career at 2.66. He is 7th in the MLB with his FIP of 3.14 on the year, and he ranks 3rd in the MLB in strikeouts. Chris Archer is awesome, and his .214 BAA in August shows he is still going strong this season.

On the xFIP fade list for most of the year is Lance Lynn of the Cardinals, who has a 3.17 ERA against a 4.68 xFIP. This discrepancy is due to Lynn’s decreased strikeout rate, increased walk rate, and well below career average BABIP. Everything screams that Lynn will regress soon and regress hard in his coming starts. It has finally started to happen in August, and his 13.6% K rate and 11.7% walk rate is nothing to write home about, as well as Lynn’s 4.25 FIP. This line opened at -120 favoring Lynn and has swung the other way for good reason. I’ll follow the money and take Tampa Bay at -104 on the moneyline at BookMaker as one of my Sunday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Tampa Bay Rays MLBest Odds Offered: at Pinnacle

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3141458, "sportsbooksIds":[238,1096,93,1275,19], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]


Milwaukee Brewers vs L.A. Dodgers

Jimmy Nelson should not be an underdog. Ever. Our MLB handicapper takes him no matter the opponent on Sunday afternoon.

Although his win-loss record doesn’t reflect it, Jimmy Nelson is having the best season of his career by far this year. His K/9 rate is a stellar 10.05 and his BB/9 rate is 2.35. Each are the best he’s ever put up by 2 or more in his career. Nelson’s FIP of 3.14 is 7th in the MLB this season, and his 4.3 WAR he’s put up so far is also 7th in the league. We are getting some value here with Nelson’s August ERA of 5.59 against an FIP of 2.99, so this line has more value than it normally would with Nelson’s recent results.

Another reason I like the Brewers here is Yu Darvish of the Dodgers, who finds himself as a -190 favorite at Bovada even though he has a losing record on the year. His 3.99 FIP is worse than Nelson’s as is his 15.9% HR/FB rate. He’s got a 4.53 FIP in the second half of the season, where he has allowed a .262 BAA versus a .213 BAA in the first half. With the odds where they land, all we are looking at is for Nelson to keep it close here, so I will take the Brewers on the run line at -125 at 5Dimes as one of my Sunday MLB selections.

Free MLB Pick: Milwaukee Brewers RLBest Odds Offered: at Heritage

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3141042, "sportsbooksIds":[169,93,19,238,1096], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

comment here