Picks of the Day for August 25th

Mark Lathrop

Friday, August 25, 2017 1:17 PM UTC

Friday, Aug. 25, 2017 1:17 PM UTC

Our handicapper, Mark Lathrop, is off of two daily sweeps in a row. He's off to the weekend with three selections for a profitable Friday night as he makes his MLB Picks of the Day!

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2017 MLB Record, 177-157-9, +8.07 Units

Seattle Mariners vs N.Y. Yankees

A home run spike for one of the starters in this game gives us a chance for easy runs on Friday night, but with both starters not trustworthy we must turn to the Total for wagering value.

Ariel Miranda has had a terrible 2nd half of the year so far, which is bad news for the Mariners as he is the only starter left in their rotation from opening week. Of note for Miranda is that his hard hit, pull rate, and HR/FB% have skyrocketed in the month of August. In this month, he is giving up a 40.7% hard hit rate, 44.1% pull rate, and a HR/FB% of 20%. That will not play well in Yankee Stadium in August, and I don’t expect him to sustain the level of success he had in his 2 run no-decision back in July.

Miranda will face CC Sabathia, who has already picked up more wins this year than he had in his 2015 and 2016 campaigns with 10. He’s due for a bit of regression though, and his 5.22 FIP against righties at home will be a detriment for him against this Mariners lineup even without Robinson Cano (should he rest his tight hamstring). August has been Sabathia’s worst month by far, and his 6.00 ERA and 5.87 FIP are a reflection of that. The Under is a perfect 5-0 in the last three years between these two teams. I expect that trend to normalize and I’ll take the Over of 9.5 runs at Heritage as one of my Friday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Over 9.5 RunsBest Line Offered: at Heritage

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San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks

The San Francisco lineup has struggled all year, and in this spot on the road I expect them to be dominated as they face Zack Greinke of the Arizona Diamondbacks for the second time this season.

Greinke has had some duds this season on the road, so he’ll be happy to come back home to pitch against the anemic offense of the San Francisco Giants. His road FIP sits at a good 3.52 on the season, yet his home FIP is a stellar 3.01. He’s also allowing just a .190 BAA at home with a 0.89 WHIP and a 10.92 K/9 rate. Greinke is 11-1 at home this year, which makes it entirely impossible to fade him at Chase Field in any way at all.

Greinke will Face Ty Blach, who started the year off hot yet has cooled a bit in the second half. He doesn’t have dominant stuff as indicated by his paltry 4.33 K/9 and 11.4% K rates. What he does do well is keep the ball in the yard though, with a below average 8.6% HR/FB rate. That stat is only true for lefties though, as he has yet to give up a home run to a southpaw all year. He gets hit hard by righties though, a fact that should be taken advantage of by this Arizona lineup. I’ll back Greinke in this spot on the moneyline and also take the Under of 9 runs as two more Friday MLB selections.

Free MLB Pick: Under 9 Runs & Arizona RLBest Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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