Picks of the Day for August 22nd

Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, August 22, 2017 12:40 PM UTC

Tuesday, Aug. 22, 2017 12:40 PM UTC

Mark Lathrop has been cruising around .500 for a few weeks. On Tuesday, he can't believe the value that is presented to get him, and us, over the top of the bookies as he makes his MLB Picks of the Day.

[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/kGKb0HAU5GY", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]Seattle Mariners vs Atlanta Braves

Our MLB handicapper spots two AAA pitchers in their rotations when they shouldn’t be. He looks to take the Over to take advantage of the pedestrian stuff each offers to opposing batters.

Luke Sims gets his 5th major league start for the Braves this season, and the first four didn’t go very well at all. Sims just doesn’t have overpowering stuff at this level, and his 10.30 K/9 rate at AAA this season has plummeted to 4.43 over 22.1 innings pitched. Major league batters are just not fooled by his off speed and breaking offerings, and he is getting hit hard at a 33.8% rate and allowing line drives at a poor 26.7% rate. His velocity has also dropped as he’s pitched this late in the season, and his fastball which at one time touched 99 early in AAA this year has averaged 91.3 mph since he’s been called up. Sims is allowing a .297 batting average on the year and I expect him to give up some runs on Tuesday to this strong Mariners lineup.

The Mariners are on their 10th, 11th… 14th starter this season? This time it is Gonzaga product Marco Gonzales taking the mound. It’s also his 5th start of the season and he is rocking a terrible 7.39 FIP through his first 4. I watched him pitch a week ago and he is earning his 27.3% HR/FB rate with average offerings at best. There is no reprieve from either side of the plate with lefties hitting .333 off of Gonzales and righties hitting .367. This is fixing to be a slugfest, so I will take the Over of 10 at Heritage as one of my Tuesday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Over 10Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Texas Rangers vs L.A. Angels

Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth as they say, and our MLB handicapper believes the total line in Los Angeles is a gift worth blindly taking.

Tyson Ross is not having a good 2nd half of the season and is putting up a 7.61 FIP since the All-Star break. But that is not the worst of it, as he is also putting up an insanely bad 9.53 BB/9 rate. Usually losing control like that is a symptom of an elbow issue, and with Ross coming off of thoracic outlet surgery that could be a compensation symptom for sure. What we have to consider other than the walks is that he is giving up a .291 BAA to right handers, a split that can be taken advantage of by the Angels.

Ross will face Ricky Nolasco of the Angels who is in the midst of a 6-12 season in which he has developed a dinger problem. Nolasco has given up multiple home runs in almost a third of his starts, and the last time I faded him in Seattle (while attending the game) he gave up two as well. They were meatballs left over the plate when he got behind in the count. Nolasco also has a nasty split that can be taken advantage of and gives up a .318 BAA and .620 SLG to right handers. Look for Adrian Beltre to have a good night on Tuesday. Along with Ross’s struggles, I will be taking the Over of 9 runs here as another Tuesday MLB selection.

Free MLB Pick: Over 9Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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