Picks of the Day for August 17th

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Mark Lathrop

Thursday, August 17, 2017 1:43 PM GMT

Thursday, Aug. 17, 2017 1:43 PM GMT

Our handicapper comes off a hump day split on Wednesday, yet finds two games with great value on the short Thursday betting card. Read on as he breaks down a pitcher to back and a pitcher to fade with his MLB Picks of the Day.

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2017 MLB Record, 167-149-9, +4.05 Units

Philadelphia Phillies vs San Francisco Giants

It takes a very short card for our MLB handicapper to turn to the Phillies for wagering value, but here we are as the Phillies look to break their recent slump against the terrible Giants.

Aaron Nola has been pitching like an ace for the last two years, although his team around him has been absolute shit. Luckily for him, the Giants offense is terrible and he should be in line for an absolute gem of a start on Thursday. Nola has no holes in his offerings this year and allows just a .231 BAA against lefties and .224 BAA against righties on the year. He also carries an excellent 3.14 FIP on the season paired with a below average 10.5% HR/FB rate. Against a team that is nearly dead last in the MLB in the overall offense, this should be enough.

Nola will go up against Jeff Samar…deeja for the Giants who has also pitched well for the Giants this year. His .270 BAA against lefties on the year speaks to a vulnerability that can be taken advantage of with lineup construction though, and his 4.93 xFIP in August is another indication that he can be beaten on the road here. He’s also walked twice as many batters in the 2nd half of the season as the first with a BB/9 rate of 2.15 over 1.07 in those time frames. I’ll take the ace of the Phillies here at plus odds on the moneyline at 5Dimes as one of my Thursday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Philadelphia Phillies MLBest Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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N.Y. Yankees vs N.Y. Mets

Our MLB handicapper spots a starter with righty/lefty splits not worthy of any kind of total Under 8 leading to an Over call in the Big Apple.

Something going on with Stephen Matz of the Mets that we need to take advantage of, as the left hander has had a horrid second half of the season. Since the break, Matz is carrying a .381 BAA, .609 SLG against, and a 2.00 WHIP. His BABIP has also exploded over .400, but there is a legitimate reason as his line drive rate has more than doubled from 14% to 29.2% after the break. As I’ve mentioned before, line drives equal runs and 29.2% is a very high rate for a pitcher. Matz has also allowed a .299 average against right handers and .281 average against lefties. The Yankees will find success on Thursday at the plate.

Opposing Matz is Luis Severino of the Yankees, who finds himself as a heavy favorite on the moneyline near -180. I like him in this matchup, but not that much. Severino is coming off of an awful start against the Red Sox in which he gave up 10 hits and 8 earned runs. The start is a blemish on an otherwise fantastic campaign, and quite out of the ordinary for Severino. He struggled with lefties in that matchup, and the Mets will be able to stack the lineup with southpaws should the league have figured something out against him from that side of the plate. This combined with Matz’s issues and a low total of 7 has me taking the Over here as one of my Thursday MLB selections.  

Free MLB Pick: Over 7Best Line Offered: at BookMaker

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