Picks of the Day for August 13th

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Mark Lathrop

Sunday, August 13, 2017 3:14 PM GMT

Sunday, Aug. 13, 2017 3:14 PM GMT

Mark Lathrop, zeroes in on two totals offered on Sunday with starting pitcher trend driven value. Read on as he finishes up the weekend with two winning MLB Picks of the Day.

Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals

A road pitcher gets a start with extra rest and a starter with recent struggles with command get the start in St. Louis on Sunday. Our MLB handicapper sees value on the line for taking the Over on Sunday afternoon.

Michael Wacha starts for St. Louis at home on Sunday afternoon, where he holds an excellent 2.67 ERA. That mark is well below his overall season averages though, and I expect that it is not true to form. Wacha has struggled with command in his last few starts and has put up a 4.50 BB/9 rate in August with a .282 BAA and 1.60 WHIP. He’s due for some regression at home here and a start giving up 3 or 4 runs is not out of the question.

R.A. Dickey has had hot and cold streaks this year and is in the middle of one of the cold ones. He’s put up a 6.97 FIP in August and comes into this game after getting extra rest from the Braves management. His road numbers are not good where he walks 4.84 batters per nine innings and has put up a 1.54 WHIP and a 41/31 K/BB rate. I don’t see how giving a knuckleballer dependent on feel extra rest will help with his slump, so I’ll be taking the Over at the reasonable number of 8.5 at Heritage as one of my Sunday MLB selections.

Free MLB Pick: Over 8.5 RunsBest Line Offered: at Heritage

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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays

Two very hot pitchers meet north of the border on Sunday afternoon, and with a reasonable total posted our MLB handicapper has his eye on the Under.

J.A. Happ has been hot in the month of August, putting up a .255 SLG average allowed, 1.42 ERA, and 1.95 FIP. His BABIP has also been slightly higher than average over his last two starts, which shows he can be even better than those results. Happ’s home split shows a higher walk rate versus away, and I expect that to start regressing to the average as well. He’s coming off of 2 stars in a row giving up only 1 earned run in each over a combined 12.2 innings pitched.

I’ve been high on Chad Kuhl of the Pirates all year because of his drastic jump in velocity. He has a 3.81 FIP on the season and has also been hot of late, putting up a 2.08 ERA, .192 BAA, and 1.98 FIP in the month of August. Kuhl also has a better FIP away from home with a 3.45 mark on the year through 57.2 innings pitched. Kuhl has allowed 3 runs or less in 11 of his last 13 starts. This trend along with J.A. Happ’s hot August has me looking at taking the Under of 9.5 runs (buying the half run) at 5Dimes as one of my Sunday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Under 9.5 RunsBest Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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