Picks of the Day for August 12th

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Mark Lathrop

Saturday, August 12, 2017 1:38 PM GMT

Saturday, Aug. 12, 2017 1:38 PM GMT

Two very strong edges are at the forefront of Mark Lathrop's MLB Picks of the Day. Read on as he grabs the best value on the board for your Saturday MLB betting card.

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2017 MLB Record, 161-145-9, +4.44 Units (2 Pending)

Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox

Two arms that I have been looking to fade in spots meet on Saturday in Chicago, which seems to be the perfect place to place a wager on the Over.

Ian Kennedy started the season with a drastic velocity drop over 2016, which put him on the short fade list from the beginning of the season. The results have spoken for themselves, as he’s put up a 5.01 FIP in his 4-8 campaign thus far. He’s had a few stretches of competent baseball in the season and carries a strange home/away split where he pitches better on the road. But Kennedy has gotten hit hard over his last few starts, and has a 44.4% hard hit rate in August. His line drive rate has also spiked to 25% in the month. Not a pitcher that I would trust, even against the weak White Sox lineup.

Opposing Kennedy is James Shields, who is only starting at this point because of his huge contract. Over 62.2 innings pitched on the season Shields has put up a FIP of 6.69, terrible 4.45 BB/9 rate, and a .543 SLG average. He’s gotten crushed against left hander this season and has allowed a .317 batting average allowed against southpaws. The Royals should be able to stack their lineup with 5 lefties and switch-hitting Melky Cabrera in this game. This should be a high scoring affair which will lead me to take the Over of 10.5 at Pinnacle as one of my Saturday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Over 10.5 RunsBest Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks

A terrible matchup for one pitcher leads to great value on a road favorite in Arizona. Our MLB handicapper thinks the results will be the same as it was when these starters met two weeks ago.

Patrick Corbin of the gets absolutely crushed by righties to the tune of a .315 batting average allowed. He’s given up 4 home runs already this month and is on his way to another stretch like the one he had in May where he booked a 9.00 ERA. This is a similar thread to how I’ve been tailing Seattle lately in that the Cubs have great lefty batters, so if their marginal right handers can get on base runs should start coming in bunches. Corbin gave up 3 home runs and 7 earned runs to the Cubs just 12 days ago at Wrigley Field.

Corbin will face Jon Lester in a rematch of their August 1st meeting where Lester picked up a win behind 16 Chicago runs. Lester has an above average 3.80 WHIP on the season over 24 starts. He’s been an innings eater since 2008 and on pace to exceed 200 IP yet again. Lester is death to lefties and has allowed a .180 batting average and 1 home run all year to them. He can get dinged by righties a bit, but has been excellent since the All-Star Break putting up a .180 BAA and 3.26 FIP. With the situational matchup so egregiously skewed towards the Cubs I don’t have a choice but to take them as the slight road favorite on the moneyline at -124 at Heritage.

Free MLB Pick: Chicago Cubs -124Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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