Picks of the Day for August 11th

Mark Lathrop

Friday, August 11, 2017 12:54 PM UTC

Friday, Aug. 11, 2017 12:54 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper, Mark Lathrop, is headed to the ballpark on Friday evening. Of course, he breaks down the game he is going to - and another with what he thinks is a crazy line for his Friday MLB Picks of the Day.

[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/DDg59BBct58", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]L.A. Angels vs Seattle Mariners

Our MLB handicapper will be attending his first MLB game of the season on Friday night, so you know he will have some action on this game. He is looking for a bunch of runs to go with his overpriced beers in Seattle.

Marco Gonzales gets his second start for the Mariners on Friday night against the Los Angeles Angels. He’s had two starts this year and given up 5 earned runs in each. As a Mariner’s fan, I didn’t like this trade as Gonzales was an unproven arm out of Gonzaga that has no upside. I still don’t like it, so I will attend this game knowing I’m going to see some dingers. Gonzales has a 4.91 HR/9 rate on the season and has given up 4 home runs in just 7.1 innings pitched! He’s also given up a .317 batting average allowed against major leaguers this year against a .215 BAA against minor leaguers. He hasn’t adjusted just yet.

Gonzales will go up against Ricky Nolasco of the Angels, owner of the worst FIP in the MLB for some time against starters who have pitched all year. Nolasco has given up an amazing 28 ding-dongers on the season as well, so I look for him to keep me entertained in this game by allowing a few more. This pitching matchup is sure to be a shit-show, and I’m going to take the Over of 9 runs in person as one of my Friday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Over 9 RunsBest Line Offered: at Heritage

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San Diego Padres vs L.A. Dodgers

A line has opened in Los Angeles that is so egregious that our MLB handicapper has to find a way to take the other side. Read on as he breaks down the most lopsided game of the day.

Clayton Richard comes into this game with a 3.90 xFIP and 5.17 ERA, which is a recipe for positive regression. He finds himself as an incredible +315 moneyline underdog against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Richard allows lefties to hit against him for sure with a .308 BAA, yet has not given up a home run to a lefty all season long. He’s got an advantage there to be exploited, if just for a little bit to keep this game within a reasonable number.

Rich Hill, the presumed world-beater in this game, has a higher xFIP than Richards at 4.18 on the season. I’m sure he has enjoyed plenty of run support to hide his sub-par 3.69 BB/9 rate. This line is likely a result of Hill’s recent results against the Padres – 12.0 IP of 2 ER ball with a 17/4 K/BB rate. But the line I’m suggesting would have won in one of those games – a rare +2.5 line that you can find at 5Dimes. That’s what I will be doing to take advantage of the ridiculous odds being favored Hill, taking +2.5 runs at 5Dimes with the Padres as one of my Friday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: San Diego +2.5Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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