Picks of the Day for August 1st

Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, August 1, 2017 12:44 PM UTC

Tuesday, Aug. 1, 2017 12:44 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper spots a few square trends worth backing on Tuesday. Read on as he breaks down two West Coast matchups for his first August MLB Picks of the Day.

2017 MLB Record, 156-140-8, +4.47 Units

Philadelphia Phillies vs L.A. Angels

One key to handicapping is to learn from your mistakes. Quickly. Our MLB handicapper investigates the Phillies recent hot streak and finds plenty of reasons to back them.

The Phillies offense is scorching hot and cost me a Pick of the Day win yesterday as they beat the Braves 7-6. I looked at the numbers a little further and started filtering statistics to more recent time periods. When doing this, what pops out is that the Phillies have been the #3 offense in all of baseball over the last 3 weeks. Over that time span they are batting as a team at a .293 clip and have got on base at a .371 percentage.

The Phillies also start a pitcher that has been as hot as their offense on Tuesday, with Aaron Nola taking the mound against the Angels. Nola has put up a 1.32 ERA, .192 BAA, and 2.09 FIP in the month of July. He also hasn’t given up more than 2 earned runs in seven straight starts. Nola will face Ricky Nolasco of the Angels, who is 4-12 on the season with a 5.39 FIP and 18.8% HR/FB rate. He’s given up a .305 batting average on the season to righties as well which should be a problem against this hot Philadelphia lineup. I’ll take the ace of the Phillies team on the moneyline at almost even odds as one of my Tuesday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Picks: Philadelphia Phillies MLBest Line Offered: at Heritage

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L.A. Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves

It’s not like the Dodgers need a lot of help winning lately, but a great starting pitching split makes it even more likely on Tuesday night against the Braves.

Kenta Maeda has been less effective this year versus last and has put up just a slightly better than average 3.97 FIP on the season. It’s a different story at home though, as Maeda has put up an excellent 2.93 FIP on the year over 51.1 innings pitched. The big difference is walk rate, where Maeda carries a 3.44 BB/9 on the road and a 1.75 BB/9 at home. He also carries a 7.8% HR/FB% at home versus an 18.2% on the road – there is likely a park factor at work here. Dodgers pick after park factor sentence, “The truth is that Maeda’s true talent level is likely somewhere in the middle due to the high BABIP rates he has on the road, and I expect some positive regression in his road 5.42 FIP.

The Dodgers and their 4th best MLB offense over the last two weeks will face AAA call up, Lucas Sims. This is a very tough assignment for the first start in your MLB career for sure. He deserves it with the stats I’m seeing in the minors though, as Sims carries a .223 BAA and 1.14 WHIP this year over 115.1 innings pitched. With the offense he’s facing though I’m thinking a successful start would be a 4 earned runs, 5-inning performance for Sims. That’s not likely to keep this game close enough to win with Maeda dealing at home, so I will take the Dodgers on the run line as one of my Tuesday MLB selections.

Free MLB Picks: Los Angeles Dodgers RLBest Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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