Picks Of The Day, April 7th

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Mark Lathrop

Friday, April 7, 2017 1:38 PM GMT

Friday, Apr. 7, 2017 1:38 PM GMT

A run of unearned runs in games have kept our handicapper from cashing tickets so far this year, but his analysis stays steady as he gives us his MLB Picks of the Day for Friday night action.

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2017 MLB Record, 4-7, -3.85 Units, -28.62% ROI

2016 MLB Record, 55-40-2, +12.00 Units, 10.22% ROI

 

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels

The Mariners are due for an offensive explosion, and fortunately for them they run into journeyman, Jesse Chavez, starter for the Angels and mediocre pitcher extraordinaire.

I’m not too fond of pitcher split records against teams from the past, but in this case the record for Jesse Chavez against the Mariners does hold some weight because the nucleus of the lineup is the same for the M's as the trend began. In his last starts against Seattle in 2015, Chavez lost 3 games in a row and cashed the Overs in each one. He gave up at least one home run in each start and a minimum of four runs in each. His career mark against Seattle as a starter is 0-6 with an ERA of 6.57. The Seattle scouting staff definitely has something on Chavez that he would like to take back.

Countering for Chavez is the mercurial Yovanni Gollardo, who is coming off of a spring training performance in which he gave up 7 runs in less than 5 innings. Owner of a 5.42 ERA with the Orioles last year, Gollardo’s repertoire should play better in the confines of Safeco Field. However, this game is not in Safeco Field. One if not both of these pitchers is not to be trusted, which takes the side out of question, but puts the Over of 8.5 squarely in value territory at Pinnacle as a Friday night MLB pick.

Free MLB Pick: Over 8.5 Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Cleveland Indians vs Arizona Diamondbacks

This pick is a classic fade of typical statistics that one would focus on. A high ERA is not always the complete story, which gives us a reason to fade public opinion on this pitching matchup in Arizona.

Shelby Miller was fantastic from 2013 to 2015, giving up an ERA in the mid-3’s even if his win-loss record of 6-17 with the 2015 Braves said otherwise. It all fell apart in 2016, as Miller pitched dinged up for most of the year before finally succumbing to the DL with finger problems. Fingers are pretty important to pitchers as one could imagine.

Although his spring ERA does not reflect it, Miller seems to be back to his old self in 2017. His velocity is up an impressive 3 mph on his fastball – averaging over 97 mph in spring training. I’m looking forward to seeing how this velocity plays out in the regular season. One thing is for sure, the Cleveland Indians scouting report won’t have this in their playbook for Miller before today.

With Josh Tomlin being a strike machine, this matchup comes out to luck on if Arizona can put the ball in play where the Diamondbacks aren’t. I will always side with the defense here, so I am taking Under 9.5 runs at Pinnacle as one of my Friday MLB Picks.

Free MLB Pick: Under 9.5Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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