Picks of the Day, April 28th

Mark Lathrop

Friday, April 28, 2017 2:05 PM UTC

Friday, Apr. 28, 2017 2:05 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper, Mark Lathrop, is fresh off of a 4-0 ATS day on Thursday. Here he looks to two offenses that should stay hot as they start their respective weekend series with new opponents.

[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/juVWDX4P1RQ", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Indians

The Mariners recover from a 19-9 beat down to win the series against the Detroit Tigers, and now the back of their rotation gets the first crack at the Cleveland Indians. Seattle’s offense should be enough to keep this game within a run.

The Seattle Mariners lead the American League in runs through Thursday, as they average 4.9 runs per game and 5.5 runs per game off of righty starters like the one they will face on Friday night in Carlos Carrasco. They also lead the league in stolen bases, with newcomer Jarrod Dyson turning singles into doubles with regularity. And don’t forget the dingers, with newcomers Taylor Motter, Mitch Haniger, and Jean Segura checking in there as well.

Carrasco has been a bit better than his talent level so far this year, so he is in a bit of a spot to expect regression. His ERA of 1.65 is helped tremendously by his BABIP of .194, and his FIP of 3.30 is closer to his expected results. A little bit of a red flag is Carrasco’s line drive rate of over 23%, his highest since a terrible season in 2009.

With lefty Ariel Miranda on the mound and Cleveland only putting up 3.3 runs per game and batting .208 against left-handers, I like the prospect of getting spotted the run line here at almost even money. A few bonus points for Seattle coming in with a little bit of momentum as well. I’m taking Seattle +1.5 at -110 at Pinnacle as one of my Friday MLB Picks.

Free MLB Pick: Seattle +1.5Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers’ offense has gone on a hot streak in their last three games at home, scoring 9 runs or more in each game. The pitching they are going to see doesn’t get any better when the Atlanta Braves come into town Friday night.

Bartolo Colon is a location specialist, pitching 86.2% fastballs on the season with an average velocity of 88.5%. Signed to be an innings eater in a rebuilding Atlanta Braves team, Colon has traded games where he has got rocked with those in which he has dazzled. You look at those teams that he has succeeded on the year though, and you see the 24th ranked offense in San Diego and the 25th ranked in the New York Mets. Here he will match up with the super aggressive Brewers who will be hacking away at senior’s fastball offerings at home.

What I also like about this matchup for the Brewers against Milwaukee is that the Brewers have only seen 55.4% of pitches as fastballs this year in putting up the 8th ranked offense in baseball. That will change here, of course, with likely disastrous results for the Braves. In addition, Chase Anderson of the Brewers is on quite a run in his first 4 starts with all of the peripherals showing the success is warranted. I’ve got the green light to back the home team favorite Milwaukee at a reasonable -120 at 5Dimes as a Friday night MLB Pick.

Free MLB Pick: Milwaukee -120Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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