Picks Of The Day, April 25th

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Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, April 25, 2017 1:49 PM GMT

Our data-driven MLB handicapper, Mark Lathrop, is heating up as April comes to a close. There are two games he likes on the Tuesday card with three picks of the day explained below.

[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/S1XEA6UfcGs", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers

The game between these two teams went over the listed total in the top of the 3rd inning yesterday, an easy winner for one of my picks of the day. This game features even more used up bullpen arms and a pitcher with stats better than he’s earned.

Scott Feldman has put up a 2.38 ERA through 4 starts and 22.2 IP so far this season, although his FIP of 4.00 indicates he has gotten a bit lucky. Here he runs into a Milwaukee team on a 9-2 Over trend over their last 11 games. In his start against the Brewers 11 days ago Feldman only allowed 2 runs over 5 innings pitched. However, his five walks allowed got his pitch count up so he left the game early. That’s just the situation we’d like to see again to get the worn-out Reds bullpen back on the diamond in this matchup. That April 14th start ended up going over the listed total with a 10-4 Brewers win.

Zach Davies starts for Milwaukee, and his 8.24 ERA is a little worse than his 4.78 FIP indicates. Davies has not made it past 5.1 innings in any of his 4 starts to begin the season, and he has given up a home run in his last three starts. Even if Davies regresses to ‘average’ and only gives up a few runs, his inability to last deep into games will get the tired Milwaukee bullpen into this game. This situation is primed for the Over run in Milwaukee to continue, so I am taking Over 9 at Pinnacle as one of my Tuesday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Over 9 Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies

Two of the hottest teams in the National League meet up in Colorado on Tuesday, and a rookie for the Rockies with a great batted ball profile for Coors Field takes the mound.

German Marquez takes the mound on Tuesday night for the Rockies, and the fan base has to be excited to see the 22-year-old in action. Marquez has a heavy fastball that can touch 98 and that also induces ground balls quite often – a requirement while pitching in Coors Field. He also doesn’t walk many batters… less than 6% since his 2015 season. He has crushed AAA in 2017 where he started the year, picking up a pristine 18/0 K/BB rate over just 10 innings.

Joe Ross gets the start for the Nationals, and he has also been decent to start the year after putting up a 3.43 ERA over 105 innings in 2016. He’s started once against the Braves pitching seven innings of one run ball and striking out 7 while walking just one. I’m going to take the Under here in the first 5 innings with these two pitchers in mind, but as this game is on the road I am going to back the superior Rockies bullpen and also take the Rockies in the full game at +108 at 5Dimes.

Free MLB Picks: Under 6 1h & Colorado +108 Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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