Picks Of The Day, April 24th

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Mark Lathrop

Monday, April 24, 2017 1:01 PM GMT

Monday, Apr. 24, 2017 1:01 PM GMT

A 10-6-1 ATS run has our MLB handicapper looking right as we enter the last week of April. Now, even more, sabermetrics trends have come into play to help Mark Lathrop's data-driven approach to betting baseball.

[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/DrgBudJcjkA", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers

The NL Central has been surprisingly competitive this year, with the entire division within two games of each other and the heavily favored Cubs on top by only half a game. The Reds and Brewers have cooled off considerably after fast starts, but a series between them offers a chance to get hot again for one.

Matt Garza of the Brewers comes off of the DL for the start on Monday night against the Reds, and if he can’t pitch deep in the game the Brewers are looking at a shorthanded bullpen to keep the Reds at bay. The Brewers bullpen already leads the MLB in innings pitched, and with those performances have taken seven loss decisions – also an MLB leading statistic. It will be Garza’s first start of the season, and he didn’t make it past the sixth inning in his two rehab starts in A and AAA ball while on the DL.

The story of this angle for the Reds is their hot offense, as they have averaged 6 runs per game on the road this year and have accrued a .272 batting average in that situation. Garza will face a tough split as well, as they average 5 games per game and .261 average against right-handed starters. Amir Garrett has come out of nowhere to put up nice numbers pitching for the Reds so far this season and is the wild card here for the under; however, with the Cincinnati offense he might not come into play. I’m taking Over 8.5 runs at Pinnacle as a Monday MLB selection on this short card.

Free MLB Pick: Over 8.5 Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants

ATS run line dogs had another winning day yesterday, as they continue to cash tickets at a nearly 61% pace on the season. Here we find another home run line dog against a struggling pitcher in Hyun-Jin Ryu.

The San Francisco Giants have owned the Los Angeles Dodgers at home over the last few years going 16-4 SU in their last 20 games at AT&T Park. That looks to continue on Monday night as Hyun-Jin Ryu gets the start for the Dodgers, who has not been good this year at all. Ryu has been effectively wild in the strike zone so far this year, as he only has walked 4 batters over 15.1 innings. He’s also given up 6 home runs. There isn’t a statistic for BB/HR ratio, but if there were, Ryu would be running an epically bad one. More than half of Ryu’s fly balls given up have left the yard. If I were his coach I’d be worried that he is tipping his pitches, as 62.2% of his batted balls are getting pulled. Pulled balls have a tendency to leave the ballpark quicker than a blind date going bad.

Matt Cain has put in two good starts in a row coming into this game, but against Ryu all we really need is average. Cain has been the definition of an average pitcher for quite some time now, so I like his chances here of keeping it close. I’ll take the insurance run at home of course, and will grab +1.5 runs and San Francisco at -139 at Pinnacle as another MLB Monday pick.

Free MLB Pick: San Francisco +1.5 Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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