Picks Cashner & Padres vs. D-Backs Weak Offense

Steven Suarez

Friday, May 2, 2014 2:12 PM UTC

Friday, May. 2, 2014 2:12 PM UTC

The bottom two teams in the NL West meet up in Arizona for a three-game set and it'll be Andrew Cashner and Bronson Arroyo on the mound for their respective clubs. Who are the MLB odds favoring for the series opener and who are we backing to win?

Odds Overview
There's no murky waters when it comes to the MLB odds, as the Padres are strong favorites in the -150 to -160 range. If you really like San Diego, you can side with them on the run-line (-1.5) at right around +150.

Oddsmakers aren't expecting a lot of runs to be put on the scoreboard tonight, with the O/U opening at seven.


Arizona Diamondbacks (Bronson Arroyo)
The Diamondbacks were able to stop the bleeding on Wednesday, ending a four-game losing streak by closing out their home series against Colorado with a 5-4 win in extra innings. 

Still, it's been a disastrous start to the season for Arizona. They have the worst overall record (9-22) in the bigs and are a miserable 3-15 at home, as opposed to a much more respectable 6-7 mark on the road.

Tonight they'll send out Bronson Arroyo to begin the series. The veteran right-hander has been awful, going 1-2 with a 7.77 ERA and 1.81 WHIP through five starts.

He was a little better in his latest start, however, going 6 and 1/3 innings and allowing seven hits and two earned runs in a loss to Philadelphia. That performance actually dropped his ERA from 9.50.

Arroyo had success (7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 7 K) in his one appearance against San Diego last year, but he just hasn't found his groove yet in 2014. In 10 and 1/3 innings of work on the road, he's given up 14 hits and eight runs, with opposing hitters batting .326 against him.

San Diego Padres (Andrew Cashner)
Following a long road-trip in which the Padres went 4-6 against San Francisco, Washington and Milwaukee, the Padres now return home for three straight series. They start with Arizona and will then do battle with Kansas City and Miami. 

San Diego comes in tonight firmly favored in the MLB betting odds because of Andrew Cashner's terrific start.

The 27-year old is just 2-3 but has recorded an ERA of 2.68 to go with a 1.14 WHIP. He's run into some trouble over his last two starts, allowing a total of 16 hits and eight runs over 12 innings in losses to Washington and Milwaukee, so we'll have to see if he can bounce back tonight.

Cashner has been downright nasty at home thus far, surrendering a measly two earned runs over 22 and 1/3 innings (0.81 ERA) of action. He's shut down some potent offenses, getting wins over the Dodgers, Tigers and Rockies in his first three starts at Petco Park.

As for San Diego's hitting, they've been really struggling. They're dead last in the MLB in runs scored and are near the bottom in practically every relevant offensive category. Chris Denorfia is the only regular hitting over .300.

MLB Pick
Based on this season's form, the pitching matchup is clearly in San Diego's favor. That's one of the main reasons we'll be recommending that our readers take the Padres to win in their MLB picks this evening. 

Cashner has been a little shakier over his last couple of starts, but he's been masterful at home and should do well again versus an Arizona offense that has only two batters hitting over .300 this season.

In order to get some more value with our MLB picks, we'll back San Diego on the alternate line. Look for the Padres to improve to 8-6 at home with a win behind Cashner's arm, and don't be surprised if the 'under' comes through as well in this matchup featuring two weak offenses.

Pick: Padres -1 (-104) and 'under' 7

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