Picking Padres at +165 vs. Cardinals is Purely a Value Play

Charles Stark

Sunday, July 5, 2015 3:36 PM GMT

Although the pitching matchup favors the Cardinals in this spot there is still a lot of value in placing MLB picks on the San Diego Padres today. This is purely a value play. 

Padres vs. Cardinals Betting Odds
This line has been set by MLB odds makers at about +150 to +155 at most sports books. With the records of both teams and the pitching matchup there is no doubt the Cardinals should be the favorite in this spot, but I really think this game is more of a tossup than people realize.

 

Major League Pitching Matchup
For the Padres Ian Kennedy with a 4.86 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. He was absolutely horrible at the beginning of the season but in the month of June he has really started to turn things around. Although there have been quite a few runs scored against him during his time on the mound in his last few games, he is only allowed nine earned runs in his last 35 innings pitched in the month of June. Also, on the road this season he has been solid with a 3.38 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Look for him to continue pitching well against a Cardinals team that is a little bit overrated offensively. For the Cardinals Lance Lynn takes the mound with a 2.74 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. He has been stellar so far this season and in the month of June he has only allowed three earned runs in four starts over 24 innings. But in three of those starts he pitched against three of the lower offensive production teams in the major leagues. Not to diminish what he has done this season because he is pitched very well, and the Padres are nothing special at the plate, but in the game of baseball is good value in the pitching matchup is a little bit closer than the MLB odds indicate.

 

Offenses
Neither the Cardinals nor the Padres are among the elite offensive team in the major leagues. They both though are very solid and rank middle tiered with the Cardinals ranking around the top ten in some areas at the plate. The Padres rank 18th in runs scored per game and are ahead of the Cardinals who rank 20th. Statistically across the board the Cardinals are the better offensive team ranking higher than the Padres in hits per game, batting average, and on base plus slugging percentage. About those categories mentioned is something that really jumps out at me is when looking at the Padres home and away numbers. They rank higher on the road in those categories compared to at home which is pretty rare for any major league team.

With Kennedy pitching well as of recently and the Padres already winning two of the first three in this series look for the Padres to come in with a lot of confidence today. Although it will be an uphill battle against Lynn who can be really tough at times there is just too much value to pass on the Padres in this spot. Take them today knowing you are making the right call as far as value MLB picks goes.

MLB Pick: Padres +163 at YouWager