Usually, I don't like betting on the Yankees, but my sports handicapping mantra is 'value' and today, as they face the Toronto Blue Jays, New York is the best value MLB pick.
Just because I'm a sport handicapper doesn't mean I don't have feelings too, and honestly I don't like the New York Yankees, never have. Still, value is my mantra and today the value is with the New York Yankees on the plus money line against the Toronto Blue Jays. I understand why it might be hard to take them in this spot to sweep the Blue Jays, but looking at the matchup they have a very good shot to do just that.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays Betting Odds
With the names and the matchup it is obvious that Toronto would be made the favorite and MLB odds makers have come out with them at around -125. The best odds I have seen on the Yankees are at +118 at Heritage sports book, and other places have them around +115. For me this is good odds on a very good New York team, and a favorable pitching matchup, that seems to be out of there rut.
New York Yankees
Luis Severino takes the mound for the Yankees with a 2.45 ERA, 0.91 whip, nine strikeouts, and a 0-1 record. The 21-year-old was sharp in his two major league starts against the Red Sox and the Indians allowing three total earned runs over 11 innings. What I like about those two starts is that he only had one walk and did a nice job inducing ground balls and fly balls. I honestly think he might be even the better pitcher in this matchup and he has a huge upside. In four seasons in the minor leagues he had a stunning 2.30 ERA, and this year in AAA he was 7-0 with a 1.91 ERA and 0.93 whip. If he stays within himself and pitches like he's capable of Toronto could continue their struggles at the plate.
The Yankees come into this game rank second in runs scored per game at 4.79, fifth in OPS at .753, and a team batting average of .255. They are one of the best offensive teams in the major leagues ranking high in every major category. I think it was Carlos Beltran's huge home run in the first game of the series that reignited them for the season. Although their away stats drop-down compared to hitting at home, I think they will continue to roll today.
Toronto Blue Jays
Drew Hutchinson takes the mound for the Blue Jays with a 5.26 ERA, 1.48 whip, 110 strikeouts, and a 11-2 record. Look at those numbers again, and you would think there is no way that this guy is 11-2. Well there is a good reason for that, Hutchinson gets more runs support than ANY major league starter at 6.87 runs per game. That makes a lot of sense considering the offense that is behind them, after all Mark Buehrle ranks second right behind him at 6.39. He has not gone really deep into ballgames and in his last 10 starts he has only reached the seventh-inning just once, his last start against Oakland in which he pitched very well. He is still young and the Blue Jays are pretty high on him, also he pitched well in one start against the Yankees much earlier in the season. Still, don't look for him to repeat that performance, the Yankees should get to him early and often.
Toronto ranks first in runs scored per game at 5.23, first in OPS at .773, and sixth in batting average hitting .262. Those statistics, plus their other offensive statistics are all much stronger in Toronto. There is no doubt this team can flat out rake, and it is not easy to go against them in their home park especially trying to avoid a sweep. But even great hitting teams struggle at times and that's what we have in the Blue Jays right now. In their last three games they have only totaled 17 hits, and are in just a little bit of a slump. I don't expect that slump to continue much longer, but I do expect Severino to give them some trouble today.
It seems there are two types of people in this world, those that like the Yankees and those that do not. You can put me in the group of the latter, but today I will gladly back them on the plus money line as I think there is good value with a very good young pitcher on the mound. Don't be surprised if New York gets out of Toronto with a sweep, back the Yankees with your MLB picks today.
MLB Picks: Yankees +130 at The Greek