Pick Verlander & Tigers +154 to Emerge Victorious vs. Royals

Charles Stark

Tuesday, September 1, 2015 11:55 AM GMT

For your MLB picks today I suggest backing Justin Verlander and the Detroit Tigers against Johnny Cueto and the Kansas City Royals. This is an excellent opportunity to reap benefits of underdog odds.

Tigers vs. Royals MLB Odds
Here we go again with the odds makers disrespecting Verlander making him a pretty big plus money line underdog. It makes some sense though, after all he did not pitch well the last time he faced Kansas City allowing five earned runs off of 10 hits in seven innings. Still, I like for him to get some revenge off of that which makes the Tigers my underdog play of the day for my MLB picks. There are some pretty good money line odds out there though, like at 5Dimes where you can grab the Tigers at +144.

 

Verlanders & the Detroit Tigers
Justin Verlander takes the mound with a 3.45 ERA, 1.07 whip, 71 strikeouts, and a 2-6 record. After that one tough start against the Royals five outings ago he has been extremely tough in his last four games allowing just one earned run in his last 29 innings on the hill. As well, in those last four games he has only allowed 12 hits total and has simply been lights out just missing a no-hitter his last time on the mound. Any plus money value on a quality pitcher like this no matter who he is up against I think is good value in a game in which I think could go either way.

The Tigers rank eighth in the major leagues in runs per game at 4.36, second in OPS at .757, and first in team batting average hitting .272 as a team. Their away numbers are solid as well with a .265 batting average and a road OPS of .741 which rank second in the league. After struggling against the Blue Jays in their last three games at the plate I look for them to battle hard this series against the Royals and put together some quality at-bats. Runs won't come easy against a good pitcher like Cueto but look for Detroit, a very good hitting team, to battle hard.

 

Cueto & the Kansas City Royals
Johnny Cueto gets the start with a 2.94 ERA, 1.00 whip, 152 strikeouts, and at 9-9 record between his time in Cincinnati and Kansas City. Although I like to back guys after they've had a rough outing to bounce back I think this doesn't fit the scenario for Cueto so much with Detroit being a statistically strong hitting team. In his last two outings Cueto has given up 12 earned runs in just 11 innings pitched off of 21 hits. He was very sharp against Detroit in back to back outings in early August allowing just two earned runs over 16 innings. For me though, in this situation, that just adds value to Detroit because this will be the third time they've seen him in the last month, don't expect them to hit as poorly against him this time around.

Kansas City ranks seventh in runs scored per game at 4.38, 10th in OPS at .729, and second in team batting average at .270. All their major offensive statistics go up in Kansas City and the look like they are primed to go deep in the playoffs. They do have a really well-rounded offense and in their last 10 games they have knocked the ball around pretty well averaging almost 5 runs a game in that time span.

 

Baseball Betting Verdict
There is no question Kansas City is an excellent team and are very tough at home. That being said for my MLB pick this comes down to value and Verlander has been pitching as good as anybody in the major leagues recently. Although Kansas City is team heading straight for the playoffs back the Tigers today as the underdog to pull the upset; this is a great value MLB pick.

MLB Picks: Tigers +154 at 5Dimes