Pick 'Under' In Dodgers-Nats Underrated Pitching Matchup

Dodgers pitcher Kenta Maeda in action

Charles Stark

Monday, October 10, 2016 2:51 PM UTC

Monday, Oct. 10, 2016 2:51 PM UTC

After a rain out the Washington Nationals bounced back with a big win versus Los Angeles to even up their series. Today in Los Angeles I think we have an underrated pitching matchup between Gio Gonzalez and Kenta Maeda. Will they perform better than MLB odds makers expect?

Washington Nationals

Gio Gonzalez takes the mound for Washington and comes in with a 4.57 ERA and 1.34 whip while Washington has lost the last three games he has started. This has been a down year for Gonzalez who comes in with a career 3.73 ERA spanning eight years as a major league pitcher. He has not been particularly sharp in his last five outings allowing 19 earned runs in just 23 innings pitched, but I believe he has the capability of coming in and limiting the damage versus Los Angeles. In his one start versus the Dodgers this season he was solid allowing one earned run off of three hits in six innings pitching at home. What should benefit him today is the fact that Los Angeles is the worst hitting team in the National League versus left-handers, and it's not even arguable. They rank last in batting average hitting just .213, and last  with an .622 OPS.


Los Angeles Dodgers

Kenta Maeda gets the start for Los Angeles and comes in with a 3.48 ERA and 1.14 whip with batters hitting just .231 against him at home this season. I really like Maeda and I had plenty of opportunities to watch him while living in Japan and he was always lights out. Of course his amazing numbers in Japan have been tempered now that he is pitching against the best hitters in the world but he has more than held his own with a 3.22 ERA and 7-5 win record at home. In his last five home starts he has been very good allowing just 10 earned runs total in about 27 innings of work and have a hard time believing that Washington is going to knock him all over the yard today. He doesn't walk a lot of guys and he can throw all of his pitches for strikes, as well he has had big-time game experience in Japan pitching in the postseason in front of huge and loud crowds so he won't be intimidated by the atmosphere.


Washington Nationals vs L.A. Dodgers 

Odds makers have come out with a total of 7.5 across the board with a couple places also having it at 8 with higher juice on the under. For my MLB pick, I'm going to go for under the total 7.5 like at Bookmaker +100. Los Angeles is not a particularly hitter-friendly park and both these pitchers have the capability of putting up some zeros.


Free MLB Pick: Under 7.5
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker
MLB record: 48-44-3
MLB playoff record: 3-2 (two underdog winners)

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