Pick 'Under' 7 Runs in Braves vs. NY Mets MLB Betting Odds

Willie Bee

Thursday, August 28, 2014 1:59 PM GMT

Thursday, Aug. 28, 2014 1:59 PM GMT

The Braves and Mets have split the first two games of their MLB odds series in New York, leaving a pair of southpaws to decide matters in Thursday's finale at Citi Field.

It's not going to draw as much interest as the Angels-Athletics battle out in Anaheim, but Thursday's battle in New York against the Mets is still a very big game for the Atlanta Braves.

For the third straight time this week, we have an all-southpaw mound duel on our previews and free picks schedule as Mike Minor takes on Jonathon Niese in the 7:10 PM (ET).  Atlanta is a slight -120 favorite according to SBR's live MLB odds, a few pennies lower at some sports books, and a 7 run total leans a little to the high side.

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Under Proving Best Bet In Season Series
The teams have swapped a pair of 3-2 decisions in the first two games of the set. Dillon Gee and the Mets bullpen were able to work around eight hits and a couple of walks thanks to four double plays behind them in Tuesday's opener. New York's defense then faltered a bit last night, the Braves scoring their winning run on a 3rd-inning error by Ruben Tejada while Julio Teheran limited the Mets to only three hits during his 6.1 innings of work.

Atlanta's victory Wednesday helped the Braves keep pace in the National League Wild Card chase. They enter Thursday's tilt level with the Pittsburgh Pirates, both teams 1.5-games behind San Francisco for the final spot in the Senior Circuit playoffs.

The triumph also pushed the Braves out in front of the Mets in their season series, 8-7. New York holds a 5-4 edge in games played at Citi Field where the 'under' is 7-2 to bring the overall total mark to 5-9-1 O/U/P for the year.

 

Can Minor Build Off Last 2 Starts?
Minor has pitched the Braves to wins in each of his last two starts, the most recent last Friday in Cincinnati. The former Vanderbilt star worked into the eighth allowing the Reds just one run on one hit, not figuring into the decision which went the way of Atlanta in 12 innings, 3-1. He had previously beaten the Athletics to give the Braves a sweep of Oakland on Aug. 17. The only two runs the A's scored during Minor's seven frames came on solo shots by Nate Freiman.

A sore shoulder delayed the start of 2014 for Minor who missed all of April. Atlanta has split his two assignments vs. the Mets, the loss coming in New York on July 7 in the opener of that 4-game set. Minor didn't earn a decision in either contest, and stands 4-2 in 11 lifetime starts against the Mets with a 4.85 ERA.

Niese is looking to square his August record as he prepares to face the Braves for a second time in 2014. The 27-year-old is two up and three down on the month, posting a 4.28 ERA in nearly 34 innings. His defense has been partly to blame in two of his defeats, including last Friday in Los Angeles where the Dodgers scored three unearned runs in the seventh, two of those coming plateward after Niese left the game.

He limited the Braves to just a run on four hits over six innings when he saw them at Citi Field in April, but the Mets were 1-hit by Aaron Harang and Atlanta relievers in the shutout loss. Niese is 3-3 in 10 home starts this season, pitching to a 3.05 ERA.

 

Umpire Notes, Mother Nature & A Free Pick
The last two times Mark Wegner called balls and strikes ended in pushes on 7 and 8 run totals, one of those a 5-3 victory for Niese and the Mets in Philadelphia. That leaves the St. Paul native level at 10-10-3 (O/U/P) on the year, home teams 9-14 along the way.

The final game between the teams in New York this season should come off without a hitch, at least as far as the weather is concerned. Thursday night's forecast for Flushing includes clear skies, a first-pitch temp of 77º and a 10-14 mph NW wind (in from left field).

That big trend for the teams on the low side of totals has my full attention, and that's exactly how I'll go for my free MLB pick tonight in New York.
Free MLB pick: Braves-Mets Under 7 at 5Dimes
Season: 107-113 (-6.85)

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