Pick Twins as Milone’s 1.02 Road WHIP Should Cash Our Tickets

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, July 3, 2015 5:47 PM UTC

Friday, Jul. 3, 2015 5:47 PM UTC

This Dog of the Day MLB Pick finds a highly-motivated Minnesota Twins team at a value price vs. a fading favorite in the Kansas City Royals.

Minnesota and Kansas City play the 2nd of their 4-game weekend set at Kauffman Stadium tonight in a contest that is scheduled to have the first pitch thrown at 8:10 ET. The Royals enter on a 4-game losing streak, the longest in more than a year for this World Series participant. Minnesota enters with the momentum of last night’s 2-0 win which pulled them to within 3 ½ games of KC for the division lead.  

After a 3-game sweep in Oakland last weekend by combined scores of 13-7, the Royals fell flat in a 3-game set at Houston to begin the week. They were trounced by the Astros by combined scores of 16-6, losing the 3rd game of the series after leading 3-0. Last night, the Royals never cracked the scoreboard as Minnesota’s starter, Gibson, was in control the whole evening. That makes it 4 straight losses for the Royals in which they plated 6 total runs with a .188 BA. Despite the losing streak, the Royals, with 32 losses, had the fewest defeats in the American League, trailing the Astros by a single percentage point for the best record in the league. In a season where parity has become common place in the American League, all 15 teams are playing between .447 and .580 baseball. As such, it is tough to look at higher priced American League favorites against the MLB odds, especially ones who are suffering the inevitable downturn in a season. 

Must Read: MLB Picks of the Day: Elite Pitchers & Natural Hitters

Pitching Matchup
For the Royals, Guthrie has had a rollercoaster season. Though KC has won 9 of his 15 starts, Guthrie has a 5.68 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP. Admittedly, he has pitched better since the beginning of June and has produced 4 consecutive solid starts from this mound. Despite that work, Guthrie still has a 1.27 WHIP from this mound.  

The Minnesota Twins obeyed my “SELL” signal the beginning of June, as their near .600 record of 32-22 was not going to hold up with their bottom 1/3 OPS numbers in pitching and batting. True to form, they have gone 10-15 since my call. Nonetheless, they will be highly motivated for this game, as they have now pulled back to within 3½ games of the Royals for the division lead. As such, they are worth a look at this price on the  with tonight’s highly motivated starter, Milone, who is pitching outstanding baseball. With Santana about to become eligible following an 80-day drug suspension, Milone will be pitching for his spot in the rotation tonight. For the season to date, Milone has a 3.19 ERA in 9 starts. But, his last 5 starts, since being recalled into the rotation, have been outstanding. He has allowed 2 or less earned runs in all 5 starts with a 2.03 ERA. In his previous start, 6 innings of work against Milwaukee, he did not allow a run while surrendering just 2 hits. It is his work on the road that is most notable, where in 5 starts, Milone has posted a 1.02 road WHIP.

MLB Pick: At a value price, consider Minnesota and Milone +125 at 5Dimes as your Underdog of the Day!

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