Pick Twins -110 as Mariners & Walker Must Be Considered Play Against Material

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, July 31, 2015 1:57 PM UTC

Friday, Jul. 31, 2015 1:57 PM UTC

The 4-game weekend set between the Seattle Mariners and Minnesota Twins continues Friday night at 8:10 ET at Target Field. Let's check the MLB odds on this matchup & find the best value pick.

Seattle Mariners (Walker) vs. Minnesota Twins (Milone) 8:10 ET
The 4-game weekend set between the Seattle Mariners and Minnesota Twins continues Friday night at 8:10 ET at Target Field. The first game of the series was won by Minnesota (9-5). As a background to this series, note that Seattle at 46-57 trails Houston by 12 games for divisional supremacy and is an also ran. Minnesota continues as one of 7 teams over .500 in the American League.  At 53-48, they currently hold the 5th spot in the playoff race. Yet, there is plenty of focus as no fewer than 2 teams, including Baltimore and Toronto, are breathing down their collective neck. If the Twins are to maintain their playoff spot, they understand their best ally is their strong home field.

More was expected of the Seattle Mariners this year. But, they continue to underperform with a recent run of 20-32 in their last 52 starts. Lack of inexperience by tonight’s starter, Walker, has been a reason for his inconsistency. As a result, Walker has a 5.03 ERA for the YTD.  More specifically, in 4 recent starts, Walker has an 8.02 ERA. Equally disturbing is Walker’s record on the road, which includes a 5.84 ERA and a PURE PLAY AGAINST 1.60 road WHIP.  With 4 consecutive losses, both Seattle and Walker must be considered PLAY AGAINST candidates.

After a 6-10 start to the season, the Twins went on a 26-12 run. It is the reason why they are a winning team for the first time in 4 years. Recently, they have gone just 21-26.  But, they remain a solid 33-20 on this field for the season. Looking to hold down the 5th spot in the AL playoff race, expect plenty of focus from Minnesota. Much like Walker, tonight’s Minnesota starter, Milone, has struggled of late allowing 11 runs in 8 2/3 IP of his most recent outing.  But, he has a decent 3.58 ERA for the YTD, very similar to his 3.48 ERA in 9 starts against Seattle. The Twins have won 4 of 6 of Milone’s home starts.

Must consider this to be a value MLB pick on Minnesota tonight!  Though neither starter is in good current form, the Twins feature the better current form and clearly hold a meaningful home/road dichotomy over the visiting Mariners. In a battle of two teams with different agendas in the final 2 months of the season, I favor the Minnesota Twins at this value price on their strong home field.

MLB Pick: Take Minnesota Twins -110 at Bookmaker

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