Pick Toronto Against the Run Line in Today's Yankees-Blue Jays Rubber Match

Darin Zank

Wednesday, September 23, 2015 1:31 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 23, 2015 1:31 PM UTC

The Yankees evened this series with Toronto at a game apiece Tuesday night, and will go off as tempting underdogs today. Do we take the price with the underdog Yanks, or find a way to pick the Jays?

Yankees-Blue Jays Wednesday Odds
As of this writing the best line we could find on our MLB odds board for Toronto with Marcus Stroman was the -176 at BetOnline, while 5Dimes was giving New York with Ivan Nova +171. Also, most of Wednesday's betting market opened the total on tonight's game at nine runs, then dropped that figure to 8.5.


The Situation
New York evened this series at a game apiece with a 6-3 extra-innings victory Tuesday night, the key blow coming on a three-run homer from Gregory Bird in the top of the tenth. With the win the Yankees (83-67) pulled to within 2.5 games of Toronto (86-65) for the lead in the AL East.

The Blue Jays also still trail Kansas City by a game and a half in the battle for the best record in the American League.

New York, meanwhile, upped its lead in the AL wild-card race to four games over second-place Texas.

Toronto leads this season series 12 games to six, with the UNDERS going 11-7.


Wednesday's Whirlers
Stroman (2-0, 3.00) is one-for-two on quality starts since rejoining the Big Club two weeks ago. Last Friday he held Boston to one run through seven innings, while just before that, in his season debut, he gave up three runs in five innings against this New York outfit. So through 12 innings this season Stroman has allowed four runs and 10 hits.

Toronto is 2-0 in Stroman's starts, with the totals splitting 1-1.

Over four career starts against the Yankees Stroman has allowed eight runs through 22 2/3 innings; the Jays are 3-1 in those games.

Nova (6-8, 5.11), who got scratched from his last turn in the rotation due to poor performance, is only four-for-14 on quality starts, and 0 for his last five. Eleven days ago he got bombed by this Toronto outfit for six runs in less than two innings, and over his last five starts he's been touched for 22 runs through 22 2/3 frames. On the season, which for him didn't start until after the All-Star break, Nova has allowed 80 hits through 76 innings, walked 26 and struck out 46.

The Yanks are 6-8 in Nova's starts, with the UNDERS going 8-5.

In three starts this season against Toronto Nova has allowed 13 runs through 14 innings; New York is 1-2 in those games.


Wednesday's Batting Splits
New York ranks 16th in the Majors this season against right-handed pitching with a .316 team on-base percentage, and fifth with a .425 team slugging percentage.

Toronto ranks No. 1 against righties with a .332 team OBP and No. 2 with a .448 team slugging percentage.


Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Rogers Centre this season are 45-30 on the UNDERS, even though they're averaging 9.1 runs per.


Yanks-Jays Free MLB Picks
We took a tough loss on our free MLB pick on Tuesday's game, but proceed undeterred. Based on these two starters' recent track records against tonight's opponents we have to give Stroman the edge in the pitching match-up, and Toronto owns the edge in the bullpen, especially after New York closer Andrew Miller threw 42 pitches last night. So we like the Jays, and we'll take a chance with a play against the run line.

MLB Pick: Toronto +110 on the run line at Pinnacle.

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