Pick Super Surging Mariners vs. Phillies in Philadelphia

Joe Gavazzi

Monday, August 18, 2014 1:41 PM UTC

Monday, Aug. 18, 2014 1:41 PM UTC

In preparing the most profitable MLB picks today, Joe Gavazzi has decided to focus on the Seattle Mariners vs. Philadelphia Phillies match. He inspects the betting odds, pitching matchups, betting trends and more before making up his mind. 

Seattle Mariners (Elias) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Williams) 7:05 ET
10* Seattle (-1 ½ R, +115)
The dog days of August are filled with towel-tossers who have no hope of making post-season play and the super-surgers who are looking for an invitation to MLB’s post-season party. When these super-surgers are playing these towel-tossers, the team momentum is on our side and the pitching numbers are clearly in our favor, then it is time to take off the rubber band. Throw in some great run line numbers at a value price and you have the makings of an easy winner! 

Long ago, Philadelphia stood 22-21 with the promise of the 2014 season ahead of them. Since that time, they have gone 33-49 with no hope of staying in contention. At the other end of the spectrum, there is a Seattle Mariners team who is on a red hot roll

Keyed by quality starting pitching, Seattle enters tonight on runs of 40-26 and 10-2. In the month of August, the Mariners’ pitching staff has authored a 1.89 ERA. As a result, Seattle has taken a ½ game lead over Detroit for the 2nd Wild Card spot in the MLB West. With a record of 33-24 on the road, they are clearly superior to the Phillies, who have posted a 26-36 mark on their home field. 

The pitching mismatch is clearly in our favor.

For Seattle, Elias has a solid, if not spectacular, 1.26 WHIP and 122/48 KBB. Inspired by the higher profile names in this rotation, Elias has pitched his best ball most recently. In 4 starts, Elias has allowed just 6 runs on 18 hits with 21Ks in 21 2/3 IP. For Philly, Williams has been bounced around like a rubber ball this summer.  He has pitched for Houston, then Texas, and now for Philly in the last month. His 3 starts for Texas and Philly have resulted in a 15 1/3 IP of work in which he has allowed 13 runs on 23 hits. 

The final piece of our puzzle comes with the run line numbers. Due to strong pitching on the road, Seattle has won 26/33 (78%) of their road games by 2 or more runs. Conversely, Philly has lost 26/36 of their home losses by 2 or more runs. In what figures to be a run line romp, we line up with the super surging Seattle Mariners against a Philadelphia team who has lost their way and is now turning to a journeyman starter.   

Free MLB Pick: Mariners at BetOnline Sportbook

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