Pick Strasburg & Nationals Run Line vs. Diamondbacks in MLB

Ross Benjamin

Monday, August 18, 2014 7:54 PM UTC

Monday, Aug. 18, 2014 7:54 PM UTC

When MLB teams who are on the opposite sides of the spectrum meet this late in the season, finding MLB betting value isn’t always the easiest of a tasks. Read our MLB handicapping piece which uncovers the most logical MLB bet to make in tonight’s Arizona/Washington game.

Teams Heading in Opposite Directions
The Nationals will host the Diamondbacks tonight in Washington with the first pitch scheduled for 7:05 PM ET. This will pit the NL East division leader (Washington) against the next to last place team (Arizona) from the NL West. Going into this series, which began on Monday evening, the Nationals were 10-4 in their last 14-games versus the Diamondbacks, and that included 4-1 the last 5 at home.


The Starting Pitchers
Arizona will go with 26-year old rookie right-hander Chase Anderson on the mound tonight. Anderson has been a pleasant surprise since being called up from AA Mobile of the Southern League in early May. He’s gone 9-6 against the money in 2014 with a solid 3.16 ERA. He’s been especially good over his last 6-starts by posting a stellar 2.19 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.

Washington will counter with Stephen Strasburg. For the first time in his young career, we just don’t know what we’re going to get from this talented right-hander on a start to start basis. He’s gone a very average 13-13 against the money this season, with a respectable 3.53 ERA, and a better than 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio. One thing we do know for sure. He’s been much better at home (2.41 ERA/13-starts) than on the road (4.77 ERA/13-starts). He’s had one shaky outing over his last 4-starts, while posting a very good 2.77 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in those outings. Strasburg has gone a very profitable 8-1 against the money in his last 9 at home versus an opponent with a losing record.


Nationals Eye on the Prize
The Nationals entered this series with a comfortable 6.0 game lead in the NL East over the 2nd place Atlanta Braves. Washington will face Atlanta another 6-times before the conclusion of the regular season. The Nationals had won 6 in a row and 9 of their last 11-games as of Monday. They’ve been very good at home this season going 37-24 (.607). Washington has received a tremendous boost from their pitching staff which ranks 2nd in all of baseball with a team ERA of 3.08.


A Season to Forget
The Diamondbacks season has been disappointing to say the least. Thanks to the even more inept Colorado Rockies, they find themselves 4th in the 5-team NL West. Arizona has actually been better on the road (28-32) than at home (25-39) in 2014. Unlike tonight’s opponent, the Diamondbacks pitching has been a major weakness ranking 25th in baseball with a team ERA of 4.27.


Final Analysis
Keep in mind when making tonight's MLB betting picks that Chase Anderson has done a terrific job for Arizona since joining the club in early May. As a matter of fact, he’s been one of their few bright spots this season. However, he will be overmatched in this one by a superior opposing starting pitcher, and an opponent that’s very good at home.

Free MLB Pick: Washington -1.5 over Arizona on the run-line, as provided by BetOnline

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